Short Term Trading.

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Grob109, Oct 12, 2003.

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  1. There is a one page color flow chart of short term trading here.

    The hot list below is what you get from working through the first column (Culling). The Score is assigned by where the stock is in the trading cycle. Get the posted information on scoring that is here so you can see these stocks are near the through of the trading cycle.

    My results* are:






    form these and my resnetly owned list I chose he following for my hot list:

    no 7's; 1's are: OVTI, and APPX; 0's are: ECLG, PSTI, and LEXR.

    The recently owned include: SCHN, DGIN, ATRS, NFLX, and CYBX

    If you have trouble duplicaating this list from the posted method, ask Q's for places to go to or attend the scheduled discussions. The hot list is a simple list of stocks that are going to break out long the next few days.

    * Use EPS 80, RS80, others ALL, sort by % increase in volume. Use prices between 15 and 50.

    There is an audio narration of when these stocks breakout in volume before they break out in price. If you like real time for buying stocks listen. If you work and can't listen, pick up the recording after work and listen. If you do not like to listen then read the record of the narration.

    All the methods for doing this have been available since the 60's. The advent of the PC has made them available through web sites and forums.

    This thread is going to be focussed on trading primarily so I am providing everything in advance for making money.

    A daily assessment of the hot list stocks will be done following each day's close. Thee is a sheet whose file name is: daily rr it is posted here so you can get it if you want to fill it in.

    Enjoy this thread on trading. what we do is excellent and it happens to exceed anything others have posted in the Holy grail thread vis a vis performance.

    This is not the holy grail.

    People tend to keep their top notch stuff private. That may be understandable or not to you. The level of this trading information and process is just set for rapid and maximum transference to any one at any level of trading skills.

    My custom is to be responsive to others in their threads. This thread is an exception. It is a real time trading thread supported by continuing trading pointers to get the job done.

    Almost no one reading this will be able to plug in the belief system required to make proper decisions. As time passes you will get provisional pictures that can be used to replace the ones you now have in your belief system.
  2. Don Bright posted following my first post, then the post evaporated. I know this is because he does not want the post there anymore and he is a paying customer.

    He inquired: What's going on here----- just curious?

    For those who may have seen the temporary post and felt that I would soon be providing the answer, you are correct.

    Here is the overview.

    The bulk of my efforts are just like anyone else's. From that base of TA, I have spent my time, since 1957, iteratively refining what I do. The following facets have come into being as a consequence. I have an imprimatur of excellence. These facets below are what enables that excellence. This is not an ego comment. It is a simple statement that I have spent just under 50 years getting what I have to the state it is in by working continually. Work pays off and excellence is one of it's delineators.

    1. The market migrates from operating point to operating point in each periodicity of its operation. The migration continues unabated until something blocks the path. I have an unpublished matrix that defines this. Key words: migration, blockers, flaws. The strategy that underlies this is to assume trends will continue until a detectable (think: software detection) flaw provides a "blocker" to impede the market flow. Sufficient blockers the unblocked path a very highly probable future avenue. Thus I trade ahead of the market, knowing the only remaining avenues.

    2. I added a corollary to the P,V relationship. It is: If the volume is constant, then the price will drift slowly downward. This makes the P,V relation comprehensive. The P,V relation defines all patterns ,channels, and indicator signal generation. It is nice to have the relation totally comprehensive, so I added the corollary.

    3. By adding the A/D function to the direct variables, price and volume, I was able to define the trading cycle as 8 segments, each of which represent the 8 possibilities of the combinations of three variables. By assigning the proper importance to the three variables I was able to get the trading cycle to follow a numeration sequence. Boolean algebra was the most convenient system of numeration to deploy descriptively to be able to derive a sequence. The variables have the least possible variation on this basis. 1 or 0. Since trading is cyclic the variables have to stand for a time based phenomena. 1 represents increasing over time; 0 represents decreasing over time. Measurement is taken over time so adjacent data is used. It turns out the 8 values of the combinations go in an order and they proceed as a count down as in rocket launching. Three results are obtained. the results are best stated as the answers to three important questions which are relevant to making money; they are:

    Where in the cycle is the price now? what is the next step of the cycle? And how fast is the cycle progressing? Those I mentor independent of one another named this: "Tomorrow's Newspaper Today." The name originated in the era of when newspapers were the source of EOD data. It was a quaint period of history when ticker tapes were used in brokerage houses and walls were chalked to display information for traders. It was a time very unlike now and it was pleasant and enjoyable.

    4. Plateaux. People learn stage by stage. Making money has to accommodate this. It is not possible for a person to trade successfully using the whole body of knowledge needed to trade every situation. There are three levels of successful trading and a person graduates from one to another by the simple criteria of wealth accumulated. Experience shows that the dwell time is tripling initial capital. Therefore, I have designed all my mentoring around guaranteeing success from day one for any level trader. The two key facets of each level are: risk and skill. The adjectives that describe these for the three plateaux are: no, moderate and highest.

    5. Removing initial capital. It is my belief that no one should trade any initial capital any longer than necessary. At the end of the beginner level all initial capital is removed and spent on quality of life enhancements that represent the success of the beginner. See part 7 below.
  3. 6. Execution. People must carry out four distinct steps to successfully execute. They are: gather data, do analysis, make a decision and take an action. The first two are intellectual and the second two are psychological. To trade, a person monitors and periodically needs to analyze what is going on. That complete, the person uses the analysis result in his belief system. Belief systems are acquired. They displace garbage and myths and irrationality. They are built continually in a context. I provide a proactive creative process for the acquisition of successful beliefs that drive decision making. They are comprehensive,interlocking and operational at the level of the trader. From this comes skills in execution. Beliefs are convertable to behavior in the form of correct trading actions. See 7. below.

    7. Belief system. NLP provides the belief system. Provisional pictures are introduced descriptively day after day. Executions are repeated endlessly. For ES, 120 points are acquired as a beginner, for example. This is the effort required to acquire the NLP base. If not done by plateau, the person goes the other direction and engenders strong failure patterns and baggage and garbage. To succeed at a later time, all of this has to be removed somewhere along the line. Not creating it in the first place is the objective. This is why mentoring is the first order of business of beginners. Nothing else is. To that end, I mentor on audio 6 six days a week through the market am and occasionally I do the pm breakout. Recordings are made daily for later use. A written record is maintained, a trading description is logged and prints posted. These four avenues in parallel result in a comprehensive, rational, set of NLP pictures to compliment what ever approach the trader is using as his practice. The pictures apply to any practice because they are the belief system directly related to the market and not anything else. This set of pictures, of course, does not fit on a page and it is only item 7 of several items here.

    8. Optimizing market efficiency and personal efficiency. Quants use various forms of market efficiency. Here, the strongest is implicit. Welding the bond between the person trading and the market operating is where optimization occurs. Some of my posts that were killed directly addressed that when persons specifically put their situation on the table. Just as real time trading cannot be recorded on ET. Neither can issues of personal efficiency. They are deleted here. If you see one make it copy it. This weekend I had to capture a Don Bright post and another by someone else as well. I can afford what it takes to do that as is now being seen here.

    Market efficiency vis a vis information is one thing. The other thing is the ability of the market to make capital available to you. This kind of efficiency has another aspect. That is your personal efficiency to extract that money as you make money. This combination of efficiencies, one to offer and one to extract, is the focus of what I do best. I have 8 specific levels of "doubling". What doubling means is the before and after effect of applying a mechanism to achieve a tighter weldment between you and the market. Before the mechanism is applied you have a given combined efficiency. After it is applied there is a roughly, doubling of the money velocity of your capital appreciation. The eight equity mechanisms are: 1. the natural cycle, 2. entry on volume BO, 3. stops, 4. high side exits (carving the price), 5. rotational streams of capital, 6. EPS and RS QA, 7. cycle compression (in late out early), and 8. pairing fractals. There are 8 associated intraday index trading mechanisms: none for beginners; 4 for intermediates; 2 scaling mechanisms; and 3 expert mechanisms.

    Efficiency goes from risk minimization to eliminate any losses, then after that to successively extract more and more of the market potential through application of execution skills. The most important single factor in this is the setting up of provisional pictures, completing the picture sets, and getting the crossover to eliminate old pictures and have a residue of appropriate pictures.

    The best example of not doing this process on ET is "blow out". This is a profound show of what it is like to not have complete pictures and, in place of that, a climactic reversion to baggage which has "fear" pictures burned in over baggage by repeated failure in areas where there are no adequate beliefs. ET has classic blow out pros here. The classic single belief (a myth type belief) here in ET is that a person has to spend years to learn to trade. What the person really learns is fear and failure instead. The deeper a person goes off track, the harder it is to substitute reality into their beliefs at a later time. 90% of people fail as we all know (the myth goes on and on). None of them have a possibility at all of assessing themselves to determine why they do not have correct and complete pictures. The lat time a person surfaced an attempt to deal with it in the psychology forum the response was editied right out. The reason is clear. What pictures cause ranting here? What pictures cause flaming here? They cover voids in having a trading belief system. You have to have excellent beliefs to make money. Actually, you have to have at least passable beliefs to0 recognize when a person is making money.


    I trade like other people do, mostly. The items above just represent about 50 years of building excellence through iterative refinement. The polls show that 4 out of 5 people think this is not for them and it is unimportant. On the other hand, it may be possible that there is something that can make more money for you. If so, then go for it. This forum will flesh out this stuff for practical application. Don't look for one pagers though. That is a belief that needs to be replaced. this is not a strategy, not TA not chit chat, but it is trading with verve and excellence.
  4. Actually, after I read more closely, I saw what you were doing. I hope all this is working for you.

    It was pretty early this AM, and my eyes were pretty blurry...and at first glance I must have mis-read. It seems we both have "get a life" (being able to catch a 1 minute post is pretty good, my hats off to you!!).

  5. ...please excuse the slight digression, but having a bit more than passing understanding of NLP, what's a poor trader to do who's an auditory or a kinesthetic, who can't see the pictures? Sorry. Please keep up the excellent explication of the method.
  6. IN2WIN


    Dear Grob109

    Your posts here are excellent, and as we each have a differently personalities, I believe we each really need to find a trading technique, system, or whatever we to call it, that fits our physiological/emotional puzzle.

    After many years of studying everything I could find on TA, and trading many different systems, two things became apparent to me:

    1. I had a problem following adhering to system, often finding the system trades made $ while I lost having strayed along the way.

    2. Once I analyzed the causes, it seemed to come down to the old bug-a-boos: FEAR, GREED, and IMPATIENCE with some EGO throw in for good measure.

    I believe that most if not all human's have to varying degrees the experience of fear(s), and greed these emotions impede their success as traders (and probably elsewhere in life). The degree and kinds of emotions certainly vary within different arenas within each of our lives.

    When it came to trading, it took me some time to realize that fear was indeed a huge impediment to my becoming one who would consistently follow any method, as long as draw downs brought the fear passed my "tolerance" level.

    So I set out to find that level. As it turned out I got anxious at -2.00, and really felt my pulse race by ?3.50 SP pts. Probably a very low number for most trading strategies, but mine never the less.

    So I began working to see if I could create the a method that "eliminated the "fear factor".

    I developed a method where the 1st step in every trade was to immediately set a stop at -3.25, and as early in the trade that I feel appropriate I would reduce the stop to -2.00. This kept me below ?fear? threshold.

    As time passed and success and statistics continued to mount, I found that, especially in narrow range areas I needed to use a -2.50 stop to stay in the trades long enough for over half of them to go to profit. Later, I found that using a reversal at breakeven stop would rotate me around a price until I caught the move that would ultimately unfold after the congestion ended, further improving results. My motto became ?when in doubt get out?, preferably without a loss.

    I kept trying different indicators, adjusting my settings, and finally found a pair of standard one?s that my own specific setting that helped a long way in giving the "edge" I really needed to help out in pin pointing specific entry prices and stop or reverse timing and prices.

    I find after using this method now for over 4 years the results are superior to anything else I'm aware of
    and "fear" never enters my trading.

    At the same time I worked on the "GREED" factor as well. As I found that also played a large roll in my prior losing experience.

    When I saw the market move quickly in my direction it elicited both excitement, and great expectations. Too many times I let a nice profit vanish into a breakeven, or worse, stop loss.

    So I set out to find a "magic" number that within my fear elimination technique that would yield the highest return over time. As I'm not very pc literate, or good at back testing (I know very little about how benefit from the software I have), so it literally took hundreds of hours reviewing past charts and trades to come up with a range that seemed to work. Then I began tracking it as I traded live. The range was 2.50 to 4.50 points.

    After keeping careful records for another 6 months it narrowed to 2.50 to 3.50. So most of my initial target exits became 3.00. My ?GREED? control mottos became: ?NO one ever went broke taking profit? and ?Only a fool tries to catch tops and bottom, and I ain?t no fool?.

    Purely by accident, this also solved my ?IMPATIENCE? problem. Most of my trades ended or reversed within 35 minutes. It also produced new trade signals typically within another 30 minutes. SO with an average of 8 trades a day I was kept busy enough, but not too busy.

    Over time, and as confidence grew I began to add a little more "objectiveness" into my method which to allows for stop adjustments from -3.25 to +150 as the trade progresses, and allows me to take profit whenever I believe I have strong enough evidence that this trade isn?t likely to continue in my direction.

    Of course, I?m not always right, not all my trades are winners, and sometime I take profit to soon, to expect perfection would be insane. But overall, I do quite well by all standards I?ve seen.

    To my great surprise, when all was said and done, I found that the technique was incredibly simple. Almost magically simple. I use only a 5 min chart, a moving average and two indicators.

    I make it my business to avoid all financial news and literature, as I found it tended to bias my reading of the chart pattern and indicators. Maybe ?ignorance is bliss?.

    I think the fact that I trade in such small time frames negates the effect of the overall bullishness or bearishness of the market.

    I hope the above proves helpful to others. I?m sure there are many ways too "manage" our fears, greed, and every other aspect of our likes. I merely present what worked for me.

    Live, learn, grow, and prosper!

    Please feel free to PM me; I'm happy to try to be of help if I can. Or email mail me, as I may not be on ET very frequently.

    Good trading to all
  7. IN2WIN


    If I'm not mistake NLP is neurolingustic programing - read Tony Little if you want to know a lot more.

    It's a technique to replace old "bad" habits with new "good" or desired "habit" patterns.

    Supposedly it work very well, and very quickly for some, unfortunately I was not one of them.

    However, I do believe my work with it was useful to my general growth.

  8. We are going to work from the Tad James orientation I did as attachments a while back.
  9. Attachedis a list thatyou can use to assess the hot list.

    I will attach a sample fill in the would be done Monday evening for employed people to use to place orders tomorrow AM.

    Those monitoring during market hours buy during the first two hours when the buy requirements are met.

    Make a print for each evening of this week Mon - Thurs
  10. has NLP as the primary means to changing limiting beliefs also. NLP works good IMO, but it does take some time for break throughs to occur. Nothing comes quick in life that is good, you must take the time to focus and learn.
    #10     Oct 14, 2003
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