For the record, I am no Oscar Kool aid drinker (whatever that is), I simply trade a system a friend of mine taught me from his experience as a floor trader before her retired (my friend is retired and is NOT Oscar). I'm in the market everyday and trading the S&P's. My system is up and down, however, consistently makes money. For instance this year in Jan I was down 10, Feb +20 points, March +60 points, April broke even, May I'm down about 20 points so far. This is typical for my system, you know, some good, some bad. However, in light of this post I went back and looked at every trade Oscar took since January 1 out of curiosity (NOTE: all the trades he recommended did not get hit! So I obviously didn't count those). I use esignal and can tell to the minute if he would have got filled etc. (Oscar also posts the time of his recommendations). However, my review shows that if you took every trade he recommended (in the S&P's only) that got filled from Jan 1 to April 30 there were approximately 30 trades made and about 110 points of net profit (excluding commissions). So far in May he's not done so well. He has made an additional 8 trades or so and lost 30 points. In Summary it looks like he is up about 70-80 points in five months. On a $10,000 account trading 1 lot that's about $3,500 less $350 commission (at $5.50/round turn), for a net profit of $3,150. Now, I did not do this work to support Oscar. I don't even know this guy (and frankly he's a little over the top for my personality). And his system is not very complicated really. He uses pivot points for entries and exits (buying dips to the pivot and selling rallies to the pivot) (by the way, my system does not use pivot points but they are kind of fun to follow) and he uses technical analysis for his direction (looks like normal chart stuff). It may not be the greatest system but it looks like a system. Anyway, I don't mind people saying that Oscar is a snake oil salesman (it's no skin off my back), I just have a hard time taking someone's word for it without checking it out for myself. I'm the kind of guy who backtested the system I use for months before I used it, so my curiosity was peaked by the posts in this area. Who knows, Oscar might have 50 losing trades in a row from here on out (we all know there is only a 50/50 chance on any given trade) but I thought some of you might be interested in this information. I haven't been posting to this site, but I guess, based on the recent reading I will soon get pummeled for my research by "Mr. Stealth Bomber", but don't listen to me (I'm just a guy who likes to trade) do your own research, check it out, all his past recommendations are on his site. And if Oscar ends up blowing his account up, it will be interesting to see that as well. Good luck traders.
Hi DW My compliments for your technical,educated and polite post... I have only a little remark, if I can: from a statistical point of view to evaluate a TS using only 4 months of data, can give some strange results...... Apparently Oscar's result is good, but sampling is not material to confirm it. Yes, now situation is as you depicted, but this isn't proof of a valuable trading system. Happy trading
Sorry, but I forgot to mention that every TS must be "balanced" with the market : essentially a strong long market for these last months ( ie: very easy to make money). Reliable test should be made in sideways period.......when real trading capacity must be showed.
Hello OnlyES, Thank you for your clarifications. I totally agree and hope that anyone reading my post also reads yours. 5 months does NOT make a system great! Just last weekend I backtested an ES system (by hand, which is the only way I feel comfortable doing it) and it averaged pulling out 60 points per month for three months straight! However, as you can guess I jumped it forward a year and it wasn't nearly as profitable. I agree that Oscar's system cannot be proved valid after 5 months. However, it is also my opinion that I cannot feel comfortable bashing someone I don't know, with the results he has shown...yet. There's just not enough information for me. Thank you for your insights.
I think it's ridiculous to criticize Oscar for having a few bad weeks. Every trading system is going to have draw down periods. Part of the business.
You obviously haven't been paying attention, as no one is chastising him for a few bad trades. He's catching heat for not being able to make his house payments trading his system and then becoming a charlatan deceitfully spamming the trade forums trying to solicit fresh meat to bail himself out. What you are apparently misconstruing as criticism is nothing more than enlightening the koolaid drinkers who keep coming to his rescue with the obvious. Personally, I don't care whether that snake oil salesman charms the pants off you minions or not. If you want to circle jerk each other and hump his leg like a love struck puppy, then please, do it on his site. If he can't afford to sponsor ET and act accordingly, he and his gang will have to deal with the consequences of an open forum. st
Same spam, different moniker. No surprise there!!! How about an actual track record rather than an ASSumed guess of what might happen. Remember, he was quoted as not being able to make his house payments trading. More ASSumptions from the little boy who needs to have his nose wiped by oscar. No surprise there either!!! Please explain in detail exactly what "IRS troubles" I had regarding "figures," moron. Or do you just post here because you have an emotional need for abuse? st
Dear Mr. Stealth: Will you "please explain in detail exactly" what mortgage payment troubles Oscar has had (sources, amounts, documents etc). If you are requiring "exact details" when someone slanders you, would it be possible for you to do the same courtesy to others. I really mean no harm by this post, I really want to know. I'm serious! I would LOVE to have the pertinent details as to how he has duped the public in the past and how we can conclude he is doing it again. I'll join you in your crusade to help other traders not get burned if I can get the facts. Ok, I may go about getting my message out in a little different way , but I like to check things out before I make a conclusion about anyone. Heresay can be dangerous. P.S. I personally don't have any reason to believe you are having problems with the IRS regardless what people are saying...........yet!
OK, that didn't take long. I found the article I think Stealth was talking about. Now you all can read it for yourselves and make your own conclusions. I found the article interesting. It's out of the NY post. The link below should get you there. It talks about Oscar's financial challenges on the floor since the floor trading system is in a state a change. Apparently, other floor traders are having some of the same challenges. Go ahead read it for yourself and make your own conclusions. Thanks for the lead into the information in the nypost Stealth. Maybe this will help someone. http://www.nypost.com/seven/01162007/business/hot_commodity_business_zachery_kouwe.htm
We've beat that horse to death already, but if you insist!! And for the record, no one that I know of has accused him of having ever duped anyone in the past. Furthermore, I am not on any crusade; I simply call a spade a spade. When oscar was firing up his website, he apparently interviewed with several papers. Others and myself have posted them in various threads on different forums, so I would have to go back and dig them out if you aren't willing to look for them. Here's one such article from the beginning of this thread from the NY Post: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=85078&perpage=6&pagenumber=5 What really got him in my cross hairs was when his people began posting on various forums pretending to be a joe smoe trader. Once I and others fired up on them for the deception, I then received several PM's from others stating that Oscar had solicited them for money. This I did not reveal because it was just hearsay via a private message. However, soon after, another poster reiterated the very same scenario in detail and posted it on ET. The Koolaid drinkers came out in full force and it has escalated from there. Oscar has no published track record, other than saying he has 25 years on the floor. Keep in mind though, it was implied that the best he ever did was "earn a living" in one of the articles. As I understand it, Oscar has not revealed exactly what it was he did "on the floor" and has avoided the question when asked. Another red flag. Once off the floor, he supposedly began electronic trading, and as already discussed, he wasn't successful in the transfer. He then decides to "help others" in an attempt to support himself. In summary, Oscar hasn't/won't reveal what he did on the floor. It's safe to say, however, that whatever it was, he did it for one year and then repeated the same process 24 more times, as he did not become financially secure while there. He hit financial difficulty while trading on his own, yet feels entitled to teach others how to trade or invest on your behalf from his garage. He wants to move to Vegas (is he a gambler?). Why hasn't he moved already; he can't afford to do so yet. Draw your own conclusion. My observation is that he is nothing more than another self-proclaimed guru posing in a long line of snake oil salesman. They ALL have something to sell under the guise of "wanting to help you." They feed off the naive and lazy wanna be's. Any seasoned trader will quickly see that what he does is not magical, and that he changes his position with the wind. He's been caught a couple of times posting false entries and not following his own rules. It doesn't set a very good example and speaks volumes. Nonetheless, he can talk the talk, is quite charismatic, very entertaining, and the newbies like him. People are sending him ten's of thousands of dollars to invest on their behalf. All I am really saying is, "Caveat Emptor." As for the IRS, oobie-non, an oscar affiliate, instead of proving me wrong (obviously he can't), instead spent hours sifting through my previous postings in the wee hours of the night trying to discredit me. He came across one where I inquired about how to proceed with a letter I received from the IRS claiming I owed them an additional $60-70K. What the dumbass doesn't realize, is instead of discrediting me, he actually demonstrated that I can make my house payments via trading. But as you know, you buy them books, send 'em to school..................... May your screen remain green......... st