I'll try to update this daily w/ what I'm seeing on the floor and OTC. Charts suggest consolidation - tight range thru July, after that, probably breakdown. Options seem to support this for the short term. Paper interests are: -selling vol in front 5 months (Z 69.50 straddle traded 250x, U atm straddle traded several times throughout this morning) -buying puts and put spreads for size (ppr bought Z 68.50/60 put sprd 5,000x in the pit this morning; Z 30 p was bought 1,000x; U 55/60 put sprd traded 200x, etc.) -selling calls (ppr sold U 66 c 2,000x)
Thanks OG -- are you on the NYMEX floor? And got any idea what to make of the WTI-Brent spread? Is it really Asian demand for sour crudes bring up by extension Brent over WTI? http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/07/22/63186/nothing-bullish-in-crude/#
very interesting ogarb. who is ppr? one of my friends who does energy trading for a hedge fund is calling for CL to retest lows. seems like a very bold call, but he's been right many times in the past.
Looks like that Philip Verleger is gettin' busy! http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=auTu3RI8WC1A
@setdraw, "ppr" is just an abbreviation I use for "paper" - meaning retail interests, like producers and hedge funds. @day4night, I honestly have no clue about the brt/wti sprds. I really only watch the option markets. And I am not on the floor actually, but I talk to locals and brokerage firms down there who feed me info.
My selloff call was a little off for the day. Not many noteworthy trades today. Only size trade was Z 60/80 fence traded about 1,000x total throughout the day. Not much else to report.
How often do you think directional options trades are on the right side of the market? Weren't a lot of $100 calls coming in when WTI was at $70?