Short Term Bottom in Crude Oil

Discussion in 'Trading' started by flipflopper, Jul 28, 2008.

  1. Went long this morning at 122.97.

    Divergence between Lows and Stochs.

    See attached chart.
     
  2. Here's the chart.
     
  3. In case some one wants to derail this thread by bitching that I made the call an hour after the trade I'll post proof.

    I would have done it in real time but I was too busy TRADING!!!

    The only reason I'm posting is for others to take advantage of a great setup if they feel the logic makes sense.

    Before I traded full time I used to follow a couple trades I saw on message boards so I guess I'm just returning the favor.
     
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  4. auspiv

    auspiv

    well either way that was good bottom picking
     
  5. Surdo

    Surdo

    Thanks for keeping it real!
     
  6. VictorS

    VictorS

    good area for going long. how long you holding??
     
  7. Where's your stop?
     
  8. If we get a close below 122 I'll be stopped out.

    My target exit will be when I get a stoch cross on that same chart (30 minute) in overbought territory (I use 75 or higher though most use 80).
     
  9. Saved by the last half hour rally.

    Bullish Notes:

    * We closed above $122 support.
    * Shook out many weak hands today.
    * Rallied nicely off the lows.
    * Still in a multi year bull market for crude.
    * Demand for gasoline last month at highest levels since 2006 (No demand destruction yet).
    *short term shorts piling into the market could be fuel to the upside.

    Bearish Notes:

    * Sharp selloff has many long term holders too nervous to hold.
    *Middle East tensions have calmed a bit.
    * Short Term trend very bearish.
    * Many traders getting hurt buying the pullback.
    *Fell through all support with almost no buyers showing up since July 2.

    Catalysts:

    *Inventory Report on Wednesday... price action is pointing to a build. (Anyone ever wonder what happen to all the "delayed shipments" of crude? If you remember a while back they would release numbers with huge drops in inventory then one minute later they would say this is due to shipping delays!?! Maybe those deliveries were finally made at once. lol)

    * Any geopolitical conflict. Today Israel said they were open to any methods to stop Iran missile factories including bombing those factories.

    There it is... but always remember... in the end only price matters.
     
  10. Just so you know....middle east oil wealth entities have been short from the $145 level and up (Dubai based groups)....they will not be on the bid again at these levels.
     
    #10     Jul 29, 2008