https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...y-lend-record-323-trillion-yuan-idUSKCN1Q40TJ China entered a recession in second half of 2018, and entered a deep recession in 2019 due to permanent QE since 2014, the best outcome for them would of been to deleverage, cause financial obliteration but within 3-4 years get back to doing alright, not good but not horrible... Job Offshoring and Automation is downgrading there workforce as well as business revenues permanently, and it's only going to get worst as time goes but that's another subject for another day as they say. Short term news for bears went from good to bad, with China's monetary leadership going past the point of stupid, printing 3.23 Trillion Yuan ( On paper ) in January alone! On top of all the QE that's been happening. The true numbers, nobody ever knows not even there leadership, cause any number they receive from local Governments is fiction and they pool the fiction together to create even more fiction. There collapse will exceed Japan's Lost decade, with around 330-350 % unofficial debt to GDP ratio on paper at the moment, off paper must be flying over 400 %, largest debt to GDP ratio in history by far, there will be rampant poverty among the 97-98 % of China's population with this non sense that's happening. Corporate loans jumped to 2.58 trillion yuan from 473.3 billion yuan in December, while household loans rose to 989.8 billion yuan from 450.4 billion yuan, according to Reuters calculations based on the PBOC data. Medium to Long Term, well the game is beyond over for China and will take the rest of the world with it, which will recover but China won't. Short Term, they potentially cock blocked the collapse for a few months to second half of 2019, unless May pulls of a no deal brexit, which is Christmas for bears. Trump isn't adding tariffs, and likely removing the 10 % until re-election. Meeting number 7 next week is kinda all you need to know, same shit is being said over and over yet US is still at table demanding things China won't agree too... China pressed and Trump blinked, it's over. Lighthizer and Navarro are career lawyers who worked for US Steel companies, they spent there careers fighting China Steel Dumping in courts and fighting the white house for allowing it, they don't want a deal without structural reforms, Trump wants the deal regardless of what's in it, he doesn't want to see the SP 50 down, that's it... What ever it takes to not see a fall in Dow or SP 50, he will do at this point, it's clear. Kudlow pops out every few days to say " China talks are going well " and mysteriously a buyer loads up on lots of SP 50 within 10 minutes by the tune of dozens of Billions everytime It's clear this administration is going beyond it's capabilities with PPT on fire with Index buybacks, and what ever policy it takes to sign in order to have things looking good until next election, there is desperation in the Administration. Short Term bad news for bears, there is so many land mines worldwide it's going to explode, but likely second half of 2019 from on going efforts to keep it alive just a little longer
Bad news short term for bears, excellent news mid to long term... It doesn't change Australia's Interest Only mortgage crisis, European banks failing, Chinese default party and overall economy being in limbo, Corporate debt overload in America or US Shale bond apocalypse coming. China injecting so much capital into there market, and effectively world markets will be seen temporarily as positive, although it adds to the notion of things are really bad over there, for 3.23 Trillion yuan to be printed in a month. Last Jan they went nuts, but this Jan was whoa, you would swear there leadership don't believe inflation exists With China's will to just keep pedal to printing press until yuan devaluation, and Cave man removing all tariffs on China... If Brexit gets delayed, I don't see anything breaking down first half of 2019, if Brexit goes through it might, and a no deal Brexit will have a serious sell-off happening in the markets