You only use historical "evidence" that supports the long side. Anyone short the HB's and Lenders since last year's run did VERY WELL...does your theory show that? No, not at all. You're making your case with something that only works in the way you want it to work...I'm totally willing to agree that your statistics make sense, if you look at indices....so what? If you do something other than that, like look at industries that are going to/are already doing badly and were/are short them, you can make great gains. That doesn't fit into your theory but is a great way to invest...stocks tend to fall faster than they rise.
Who says you have to be 'net short' over a 'complete market cycle'? Why can't you be short specific stocks short term, when they look, feel and act extremely toppy, by both fundamental and technical metrics? You keep talking about dedicated short funds. Forget that noise.
I am not in denial of that. But we were talking about the entire market, not individual stocks or even sectors, sorry.
Those are the same guys that went short 1997, 1998, 1999. They were the "smart money" increasing short interest in those day. Why should we think they are smart now than they were then?
I've been saying this for the last 10 posts...you're the only one talking about markets. Now you're just using that as an excuse for talking out of your ass using statistics that only support an indice-based point. If you're not joking you live deep in a world of denial and really really can't admit to being wrong. Why am I not surprised.
Wrong on what? I objected to this statement (not posted by you) and then you joined in and explained to us stating the obvious how you manage to make money shorting individual stocks or sectors while you are 90% long. Who cares??? Not really to the point was it, but hey what do you care as long as you were able to get your insults and foul language out, and after all that's all you seem to care for
You're wrong because you're using the color of the barn to call the cows inside white. The point is that you're bullshitting about indices again and shorting indices would be silly...you're the only one who's hung up on that idea and you keep resting your hat there. Your inability to look beyond indices is baffling, but it's your problem to deal with it seems. Congratulations, denial is rooted deep in your blood it seems.
Best contraindicator I know for shorting is Abby Cohen playing the drums for new end-of-the-year market index highs. By the way, she boosted her 2007 estimate for the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 3.7 percent to 14,000 and her 2007 estimate for the S&P 500 by 3.2 percent to 1600 - three weeks ago. Yeah, bullish babe...