The GREAT DEPRESSION of 1929-32 first leg down is shown below as Wave 1 and the subsequent rise as wave 2. Note that the corresponding rise in current terms is the 2011 TOP which would therefore be Wave 2. This is why I said that the next move down is wave 3, a no nonsense wave that delivers the mustard in spades. It could start delivering it tomorrow or a little later but it better do so soon or I am going to be terribly disappointed in that it will NOT be the 3rd wave that is the extended one, rather the 5th wave down - if this is true then we have to wait for months and months for that eventuality. Not thrilling to me, not one bit. The other alternative is that the downwave will be over soon and is NOT a 3rd wave per se and that the bullmarket continues thereafter and there is no GREAT DEPRESSION 2. This is yet to be determined. I have committed to nothing and leave the outcome OPEN and being nimble will jump on the next trend regardless direction. Uploaded with ImageShack.us
This then is the surf-ride I was working so incredibly hard to nail and climb aboard - it is the entry after Wave 2 is over - which as you have seen in a previous thread was May 2011 and this recent top in this thread. To get a glimpse of how the surf would be if I am right all we gotta do is view the 3rd wave down of the GREAT DEPRESSION 1 -- see below for the 3rd wave down which in this case turned out to be a C-wave, therefore implying that the wave 1 down in prev. chart should be an A instead of a 1 but this changes nothing as the technique I have to surf is independent of counting waves. Uploaded with ImageShack.us
So why then do I have a doubt as to the veracity of the GREAT DEP 2 happening? Easy. The chart first, then the explanation. We take the Dow monthly view for this. Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Therefore as per the chart in previous post, we have been in a bullrun since March 2009 and are now in a corrective wave called Wave 2. When this Wave 2 completes to the downside it will not exceed the March 2009 lows and then a massive bullrun northbound will ensue. So the gorging on credit and feasting on debt and Americans spending money that they don't have, ever hope to have, will continue with just the brief hiatus of the last few years. Real Estate will by that time also rebound because stocks and RE go together - remember that real estate is the American ATM. This then is the other scenario that if this alleged current 3rd of 3rd does not power up sufficiently, will then be the valid scenario.