Short over the weekend

Discussion in 'Trading' started by myboyDWade, Jun 16, 2007.

  1. ES 1547.50 , what's everyones thoughts on this trade??
  2. me too. =)
  3. mde2004


    Ready to lose some fast money sucker...:eek:
  4. mde thanks for your insightful words of encouragement:D
  5. bond market hit the first congestion zone, around 5.16%, there is really no news except housing and leading indicators out next week.

    Some earnings reports.

    But a quiet week on the whole. But as others have suggested the bond and equity market may dislocate, and equities may move up with yields.

    A retest of the highs around 5.25-.30 should be in store.
  6. ES up 68 points in less than a week, thats alot imo, we were at 1481 intraday about a week back.
  7. a bunch of players are net long on the ride up, they will distribute the week before FOMC, which is the coming week. FOMC is the week after.
  8. S&P 500 Views

    This is my first post here, and I usually posted in my blog, any question or correction are welcome.

    Fundamental views:

    Last week, S&P was boosted by retail sale and CPI, etc.

    This week, we don¡¯t have much heavier fundamental news. However, the following must closely watch.

    Monday, US NAHB, forecast 29. Tuesday Canada CPI expected 0.4%. US Housing starts forecast at 1.48M, Building permits at 1.47 M. GBP MPC meeting minutes might be important to British inflation level. Thursday, US leading index expected at 0.2%.

    For international market, FTSE, DAX are in all time high, CAC is near all time high. Nikkei is still stressful below 18000. For commodity market weighted, Aussi market is losing some momentum because the bounce isn¡¯t as same scale with others. After 3 days huge down, China market quickly gained back near to all time high again and HS (Kong Kong) is just at the corner for all time high.

    Fundamentally, S&P should trading flat this week for less news events. If Aussie market can¡¯t catch up quickly, that means commodity market might need a serious correction. Overall international markets submit a mixed signal for S&P, from this view, it should trade volatile with finally flat bias.

    Technical views:

    Last week¡¯s rally should bring some up side for S&P. However, the all time closing high 1540 might be resistance. The scenario is very clear: A either double tops or break out to all time high.

    The pattern, a miniature of Feb. 27, shows there is a more chance for breakout. On the other hand, the 3 soldiers didn¡¯t break out the line (1540) controlled by 3 crows, that brings a little bit bearish. The up trend is broken and the retest is successful. With Nasdaq, DJI has already returned their up trend, I would say SP broken trend isn¡¯t much weighted. From time line, now we are entering a slow trading period, any bad event can lead a double top or false break.

    The triple (or quad, whatever) witch OE might get a hangover this Monday. If the hangover pulls back more then 10 pts that bring a bearish view.

    The weekly inside candle showed S&P lost its up momentum and a slight down side bias on the way.

    Overall TA, it is up side bias.

    COT Data for last week:

    Commercial: 552437 contracts long, 557636 contracts short, neutral with a little bit bearish. This was first week since 4/10, commercial had more short than long. But there is no big difference. However, I believe, this week, Commercial should have more short than longs that should bring S&P more bearish view.
    Change in commercial long all: 49648. Change in commercial short all: 55150 . and this is third week, commercial add more shorts than longs especially the week 6/5, which add more then 10000 short contracts. From here, S&P might be starting to go bearish slowly.

    Pivot Point

    Classic: 1531.53 (R1: 1540.09, R2: 1547.27, R3: 1563.01, S1: 1524.35, S2, 1515.79, S3: 1500.05)
    Woodie: PP 1528.15 (R1: 1533.33, R2: 1543.89, R3: 1549.07, S1: 1517.59, S2, 1512.41, S3: 1501.85)
    From this week FA, I prefer to Woodie (conserve side)

    Resistance Levels

    1540.56 ¨C all time closing high.
    1552 ¨C All time intraday closing high.
    1562 ¨C Fibo (1363 this year low, 1461, this year break)

    Support Levels

    1525 ¨C 5/22, 23. 24 congestion
    1513, 1515 ¨C 5/9 high, 6/11 neckline
    1500 ¨C Key number

    Directional Bias:

    Nearer Term (1-3 days) ¨C Neutral
    Short Term (1-2 weeks) ¨C Neutral
    Medium Term (1-2 months) ¨C Bearish
    Long term (6 months -1 year) ¨C bullish

    Weekly Trading Range:

    High: 1552

    Low: 1550

    Monday Trading Range:

    High 1540

    Low 1422

    My projected Price for this week: 1510

    My projected price for Monday: 1528
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  9. I like my odds tonight :D
    #10     Jun 17, 2007