When you control 15 short funds and they tell you they wouldn't touch it with a ten foot pole then you can make statements like 1 broker controling the float. YOU SHOULD DO YOUR RESEARCH AND BY THE WAY I AM IN THE AUTOMOTIVE BUSINESS AND ITS DOING BETTER THAN EVER FOR SMALL ITEMS LIKE OIL AND BRAKES WHICH ARE LOW TICKET HIGH PROFIT MARGIN ITEMS. WE ARE IN A RECESSION.. BEFORE YOU SPEAK DO YOUR DUE DILIGENCE ITS LIKE TELLING A SURGEON HOW TO TO AN INCISION. FOR EXAMPLE THE INVENTORY THEY SIT ON IS FOR CARS THAT NEED THEM EVENTUALLY. TRY TO GET A PART FOR AN 88 saab AND SEE HOW FAR YOU GET. AS THE PARTS GET SCARCE IT GOES BACK TO SUPPLY AND DEMAND ECONOMICS WHICH YOU HAVE NO UNDERSTANDING OF. CHECK MY SHORTS AND CHECK YOUR SHORTS AND LETS SEE WHO WAS ON THE MONEY... AND LIKE ANYTHING ELSE I COULD BE WRONG... BUT THATS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN US.. i ADMIT THAT NOTHING IS CERTAIN AND EVERYTHING IS POSSIBLE.... SEE YOU AT THE TOP. bTW IF SOMEONE CONTROLS THE FLOAT AND YOU TRY TO SHORT IT ALL THEY HAVE TO DO IS SQUEEZE YOU....
The fact that you put the CAPS LOCK on made your post that much more important. Are the 15 short funds you speak of consist of negative balance bank accounts you have? I could just point out where you're making little to no sense and why your opinion is flawed. But instead, I think I will congratulate you and mail you a multi-colored cap with a propeller on top.
Its another friday and once again another potential for black monday. But as time goes on I will be proud to wear the multicolored cap with the propeller. I have fun being on the cutting edge. Its fun poking fun and in the end the war trophy goes to the one who sais cha-ching. Its really hard to find a worth while short these days especially with a long term positive market potential looming. Go to Bloomberg and then use the SI function and then come back and tell me what you see. If the signal sais SI is growing then you short , if its stable then nothing is going on. Now lets see what your research tells you... Grandmas fund is up pretty huge and last I heard she is going after Madoffs client base... btw- jUST DID AN ANALYSIS ON vectorvest and they have a valuation of 260+ so now what you have to say.
I think what's been said is mostly right, to the effect that AZO is sitting on a large inventory yet these are items that the demand is not necessarily dwindling for, only slightly nuanced by the current crisis. Replacement parts/engine maintenance accessories/breaks/etc are all very high profit items and the supply creates its own demand (as was stated, a reversion to basic economics). Most of these items resist depreciation fairly well, so sitting on the inventory is not that much of a capital consumption hardship. Technically speaking the stock is fairly oversold, though, and I don't see this as too lucrative a short opportunity. If you want to hit a slice of the automotive sect for a short, look at TRW...recent upgrade on their loans caused a surge which is reasonable, but it is looking tremendously overbought.
Another possibility is hedging with calls. Yeah they're expensive but it would give the trade breathing room.
My hat is off to you. Great analysis and well said. I was never an analyst but many of the analist would ask me my oppinion before the reports went out so I appreciate a good unbiased call. Looking forward to hearing more on the board.
You have to wait until it breaks down before going short. The sign of a short squeeze capitulation is a high volume parabolic move, then you start seeing the short ratio come down as the price falls. If the short ratio increases on a pullback, it's going higher.