Discussion in 'ETFs' started by up300konngz, Sep 12, 2020.
Thoughts and ideas? No way it can stay up this high...
As a spec home builder... Idk why I didn't think of that
LOLL....is that sarcasm? -_-
But seriously...the lumber etfs dont seem to be up like that.....which makes sense...b/c the market isnt the economy. Maybe I should be looking at futures? Eh...I gotta do some research.
well, duh. https://www.wsj.com/articles/lumber-poised-to-fall-with-autumns-approach-11599816602
I'll tell you one thing I know. It's falling supply. I just had a concrete company tell me they're having trouble even finding enough 2x12's to build formwork. My framer said something about Canada. I have no clue of the cause really.
Did all the lumberjacks catch Covid? Do lumberjacks even exist anymore? Lol
Edit: Although I also know that there's more building going on right now in Central Florida than since the late 1980's. So maybe it's demand side also.
Think their was a dispute with union of one of the larger mills going into Covid, but it is nuts.
Electrician myself and noticing supply chain shortages now. Simple stuff like two gang covers, none in stock, manufacturers have none. Meter hubs nowhere to be found, certain breakers out of stock, pool/hot tub GFI’s all out, etc.
If I knew more about supply chain logistics their could be a good trade for next quarter.
It's situations like this that make me realize that I know nothing about economics. No wonder my trades do so bad.
Lumber is one of the most illiquid things to trade.
I'd avoid trading it even if there is nothing else to trade.
Forest fires? Although the places with wildfires don't log anyway. I dunno...maybe short WY if you think lumber goes down.
Odd thing, lumber futures have recently hit all time highs, but prices of saw logs on the stump are pittifully low. So it often goes.
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