I made this post in June of last year. That chart is live, it updates real-time so its actually current. You can see we've moved up nearly 30% as the sentiment has been increasingly leaning towards 4 more years of Trump. The point of the post wasn't political in nature, I presented it as a tool to gauge what the big players are thinking regarding who's gonna win come this November. It'll be interesting to see how it moves in the coming month. https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/who-knows-better-a-half-dozen-polls-or-wall-street.333034/
lol UNH is up 10% since Dec 2018 with the SPX up nearly 30% and this tells you Trump will win? I think you need to revisit that hypothesis.
How about this... I will bet anyone on here $100,000 that Trump loses in 2020. Escrow is fine with me.
So ignore polling because of some spurious correlation? The IHF dramatically underperformed the broad market in 2019 for a reason. Your dude is going to lose. IHF is a massive short here at 208.41. I’ll be happy to bet on that O/U through Halloween.
Uhhh D... UNH dropped 25% starting in November of 2018 from what was at the time an ATH, which was when the Dems swept the vote. All the sudden...things don't look so good. Then.... It started back up again from the lows when the Primary season kicked off in Oct of 2019 with that first debate and its cast of potential nominees. And its continued up. I think that chart, and my hypothesis regarding who WS thinks will win is balls on. At least up till now. UNH is only a 23% (at the time of that posting) component of that ETF too. There's several others in there that'll get "Berned" if that in fact plays out. Don't shoot the messenger here, but there is obviously a correlation. Take that $100K D and do your magic with the puts, because if you are in fact right, that ETF ($IHF) is bouncing off all time highs and you'll make a fortune if you're right. Way more than $100K the way you know how to play these things.
UNH shares peaked two weeks after the election. They didn't trough until Sep 2019. We can all see the chart. C'mon man. SPX is up 15% since the Summer. If you believe in your hypothesis then bet on on the IHF through the election. The O/U is 208.41.
lol first Dem debate that nobody watched after the mkt had turned after going lower for nine months. And your arrows suck. The "Dems sweep election" occurred two weeks prior to that peak. If you're so certain then buy IHF or bet me on the O/U from now until Halloween. Your argument is that the mkt is reflecting a Trump win and no M4A. It would certainly be reflected in IHF out-performance from now until the election.
Well my arrows do suck as I used investor dot com real quick for the chart. Either way, if you're right, you should have free ride down to the $170's near term easy. Edit... ahhh... mid $180's
Yeah, I am thinking low to mid 180s on IHF. I'm going to start on Monday if the liquidity is there. I am shorting UNH on Monday. 301.43 close on Friday.