Short Housing

Discussion in 'Trading' started by topguntrader, Jul 17, 2002.

  1. have you considered a double-wide?

    <img src="http://www.jolenestrailerpark.com/tornado.gif"></img>

    <img src="http://www.loewscineplex.com/trailerpark/images/tparow2cell2.gif"></img>

    <a href="http://www.jolenestrailerpark.com/"><img src="http://www.jolenestrailerpark.com/more/horse2.jpg"></img></a>
     
    #141     Jul 23, 2002
  2. rs7

    rs7

    yup...believe me, no joke....I could easily kick back and live with no pressure. Drive an old beater, live in a trailer. Would be a welcome relief in a lot of ways. Spend a lot of time on the golf course, and go home and sleep. A comfortable bed, a widescreen tv, a decent barbeque grill and a fridge full of cheap beer and good hamburger meat. Sounds pretty good to me....I am a man of simple tastes caught up in a world not of my making. I just have a demanding boss (my wife). Otherwise..........hey, a SINGLE wide would do!
     
    #142     Jul 23, 2002
  3. i agree that simpler is better. hey, why dont' you take your wife out on a date Friday?
     
    #143     Jul 24, 2002
  4. rs7

    rs7

    I do...most Fridays and every Saturday. But Chas, where did this come from?
     
    #144     Jul 24, 2002
  5. it's a good habit.

    Incidentally, since I feel so guilty about those trailer park pictures, I'll state here that I lived in one once for about 6 lean months. Went from there to a house a stone's throw from the Gulf of Mexico. <i>What</i> a country!
     
    #145     Jul 24, 2002
  6. Has nothing to do with bad timing. Im liquid....far more than any of my neighbors. The realestate in my area is market at 250 to 300 per squar ft. You cant touch a loft my size in my area for under a half million.

    My point is, is that the neighbor down the street is selling for what he bought it for, 170. per ft. Now, there could be many reasons as to why that is. However, he is obvousily not liquid.

    The building of all the high price lofts and townhomes in this area came in the last year...after i got my loft.

    Its a buble.......no big deal to me.....my home is my office so half of it is a write off against my gains.

    i dont believe it will drop to 170, but many johnny paycks are loosing their jobs in my neighborhood and selling their Lofts and townhomes in a Firesale mode.....

    very few are selling
     
    #146     Jul 24, 2002
  7. rs7

    rs7

    You are on the gulf coast? For some reason I always imagined you were SE Fla....no basis...just what I thought (guess I am a percentage player)
     
    #147     Jul 24, 2002
  8. RS7 - As far as watching real estate gyrate in price, it always appears to happen. If you aren't comfortable selling, stay put. Housing really shouldn't be looked at as an investment. it's shelter. If the cost of that shelter is acceptable, stay. The new tax regulations really changed the outlook of a great number of home owners regarding housing as an investment.

    I get a kick out of the National Association of Realtors and the mantra that a housing bubble doesn't exist nationwide. That may be true, however, as mentioned by numerous posters, there are huge bubbles in certain markets. The Association also is trumpetting that average home prices nationwide haven't fallen in some odd years. See the example of price movement below to see the application to certain areas. Think these folks have a vested interest in convincing the public the housing market always acts this way (Appreciation).

    I know that I've watched my places gyrate wildly in the same type of environment. 120-220-130-270 in a 12-14 year period. I don't know where you live rs, but it will likely occur anywhere prices have rocketed. It's no different than the NASDAQ at 5000...... It'll turn around. This appreciation has been greater and more parabolic than any I've seen before. I anticipate a huge burst (more like a leaking) when it occurs and a greater reduction in value than in prior run ups. It'll take two years to trough, I'm patient and confident that it will occur.

    Come on 10% interest.... :D not realistic anytime soon, but, I can hope!!!!

    Later,

    Cracked
     
    #148     Jul 24, 2002
  9. I haven't read throgh every post so forgive me if this has already been discussed. Has anyone thought about the new laws that were recently passed re: 500,000 exception. In the past there was a one time 125,000 exception, it's now unlimited and 4x as much as often as every two years.

    This market has been a sellers market where houses don't stay on the market very long, so I can see where sellers sensing a top may flood the market and overtake the buyers cuasing prices to spiral down.

    This I can tell you, Border's Real Estate "shelf" ( right next to Finance) was packed with an awful lot of new books about buying a house for whatever thats worth.
     
    #149     Jul 24, 2002
  10. Oh, and don't forget that mortgage rates don't have to go up to have the bubble POP. In Japan, rates stayed low, but creditors stopped writing new loans. A credit crunch is almost as bad as high rates - if buyers can't get financing, sellers can't sell the day the house goes on the market. Mortgage lenders in this coutnry will tighten if they start to fear the rate of defaults or the lenders can't find money to lend.

    RE: timing the top: it is tough. The current outflows of capital in the market are going into CDs, savings accounts, and money funds. Banks and money managers are looking about for places to put all that money and i'll bet that lending money for mortgages looks pretty good. But once the outflows from the market taper off or people do something with the money they have parked in cash, mortgage lending will tighten. Scarier is the issue of the dollar and foreign capital. If dollar drops too much, foriegners will want to pull out of money-losing investments in the U.S., and inflation will kick-up due to price increases in imported goods. Capital flight and inflation will both drive up interest rates AND leave little money to lend.

    -Traden4Alpha
     
    #150     Jul 24, 2002