Short Housing

Discussion in 'Trading' started by topguntrader, Jul 17, 2002.

  1. The collapse is eminent!!.... All this refinancing activity is out of control.. There are mortgage companies sprouting up like McDonalds... I see them on every other block.... People are buying houses that cant afford them with 0% down and 30 yr mortgage payments... Foreclosures are going to double.... Housing values are going to tank in next 18 months...

    Short the hell out of housing... Short Fannie Mae (FNM)... Short the builders (DHI) short everybody in this rediculous part of the economy.... It's the next domino to drop... All these sheep are now selling their tech stocks and buying investment property...
  2. rs7


    Hey, how soon is "eminent"? Not a time frame I am familiar with. But anyway, thanks for the "pick me up"! Always nice to call it a day on a cheerful note:(
  3. Beazer homes already cracked, many others to follow. The real estate bubble hasn't popped yet, as people have been buying real estate instead of stocks and credit has been too easy to get. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have stopped forclosing on people, instead taking the amount they are behind on their mortgages and just rolling it into a new loan that is worth more than their house is. It can't go on forever.
  4. Here in San Diego, CA, fellow friends are telling everyone to go out and buy buy buy any property available, even if you have to work two jobs to just pay the mortgage. I must say that finally the mortgage payments are now so out of wack with earnings here in San Diego that it could very well be a bubble around the corner. When all the sheep pile in and believe the future is brighter than normal, stock market, they will be led over a cliff. I get offers all the time to refinance, no down, no doc loan offers.

    p.s. San Diego is a very diversified economy. Almost all of my fellow friends and neighbors have taken a second out and started fixing up their properties.
  5. Rigel


    I know someone who's three properties values balooned over the last five years. They've only owned them for about 8 years. Because money is cheap now they refinanced, and because their properties values are higher now they were able to borrow an additional $50k(bigger mortgages), less than half of the increased property value, took it as cash(the carrot on the stick), and have since been on a spending spree, so far they've spent about half of it. The funny thing is that even if they had just refinanced and not increased the mortgage values and taken any money out, all of the savings they would have realized from the lower interest rates would have been offset by the fees they had to pay. The bank ended up with all of the value of the lower interest rate. The bottom line is that they just borrowed on their increased equity. They increased their debt. If property values drop they will be in deep, deep poopoo (I hope it doesn't happen to them). I think a lot of people did the same thing.
  6. Brandonf

    Brandonf ET Sponsor

    Back in April we went to the Las Vegas Money Show. The place was dead as a morgue, not just the Money Show but Vegas overall. We went to the strip clubs and they were as dead as they are in Dallas, Tx right now. At that time Homebuilders and Casino's were all at or near 52 week highs, and we figured that if even the strippers are not making money (and they told us they are not making that much) then its gotta be bad. Vegas is the nations fastest growing city, so not so great overall for home builders, and the casino's of course.

    Who knew you could learn so much from a lap dance :D

  7. Rigel


    Off topic but relates to the general economy.
    It seems like retail store inventories are thinning in my area(big city). Things like deodorant, shampoo, furniture wax, etc.. Where you used to have ten products to choose from, now only three or four. Not nearly as much selection. Bad economic sign as far as I'm concerned.
  8. Did you mean eminent or imminent?

    Emminent: about to happen; forthcoming

    Eminent: well-known; famous; prominent
  9. Bryan Roberts

    Bryan Roberts Guest

    thank you wordsmith!!!!!!! how could we ever get along without someone correcting our spelling. oh btw, did you mean?

    Imminent or Emminent?
  10. rs7


    Too funny!
    #10     Jul 17, 2002