I don't think I am going to short any. I just wait for a pull back and get back in. It's due to a pull back, the question is WHEN. The drop in China doesn't seem to have any effect on us. At least not this morning.
How are all the shorts doing? The guys that explained to me how the market is acting iffy and we're seeing so much underlying weakness as many momentum stocks break down? Hope you're doing well all
Hehe. When I say to short, I dont mean right now, I mean soon and to wait for the pivot. I believe we found our pivot today on Google at 510.00. I am well above water with my short on Force Protection and Trina Solar. I found a pivot for Apple at 122. I opened a short on RIMM a few days ago and that I feel confident. MA's pivot is 153. There are quite a few others that I am monitoring, but dont have enough time to go indepth. Everything is going as planned. Makloda is thinking that the indexes are going to suddenly fall like they did in February, but this is so short-sited thinking and the thinking of someone who just started trading. The indexes have only gapped down like that about 5 different times over the last 20 years. The most likely scenario is for a gradual pullback, but anything is possible. It might be a slow and grinding pullback or a fast painful one. In any event, here is the chart. The SPX must close over 1540. If it exits out the other end of the triangle, then we are in trouble. In fact, this is a mini chart and does not demonstrate the multiple trend lines that pass through this point. There is a huge trend line going from late 1990s to the present time intersecting with the trend line that originates from the early 80s. I see 1425 in our future if there is no close above 1540. At this hour, the markets are chopping and what do I see on our chart but a small red doji.... If we go by Chaikan, then you can see the divergence between money flow and price. Never a positive sign.
Now that it is after market hours, I can tell you a few more details about the above charts and the signifigance. I can tell that stocktrader and makloda probably only have a few years experience in the market at best and so Id like to educate. The cautionary period for the SPX is the height of the (cup+right peak)X1.03. So the projected advance is: 1438-1368= 70 1438+70= 1508 (target price) 1508X1.03= 1553 So between 1508 and 1553 we have a period of caution. To be safe, we want to round the numbers down and up to create a risk range. So between 1500-1560 we should take caution with the market. If the SPX were to pullback from here then the most likely result would be a 50% retracement which is classic textbook TA. A 50% retracement would be to about 1450 and a 33% retracement would be to 1483. If we look at the classic indicators, RSI=SPX overbought; MACD=crossing now, Chaikan Money Flow=divergence with price, TNX= rising and breaking out, OIL=going up, margin=30%+ rise from last year. None of these classic indicators are bullish for the SPX. So we must be suspect of the SPX until it closes above 1560-1600 range. Corrections can happen suddenly or in a grinding slow manner. You want to be safe and have cash if this happens. This means taking a little bit off the table or going short on obvious picks. I made some cash today on Force Protection and Trina Solar. I usually do not hold my shorts for long. I mercilessly cover them the second I believe they will not go my way. Those who got caught by Tech Bubble 2000 were not looking at the big picture. The crash of 1987 formed macro trend lines that still shapes our market today. On a chart, there are 100s or 1000s of different trend lines. Each time the price hits a peak or a bottom, its bouncing on something. Some of my charts contain over a hundred trend lines so I can see the big picture. The big picture for Tech Bubble 2000 was that there was a large trend line created by the peak of 1987 going parallel to the bottom and then there was a diagonal created by the price going up. When those two intersected, then it formed a triangle and the price in those types of triangles usually never survives. I see guys like StockTrader who bought some shares of Mastercard last year and rode it up as lucky idiots. They dont know exactly why it went up or when to cash out. This is the same guy who bought JDSU in 1997 rode it up, thought they were the best traders in the world and then watched it go down. 2000 taught me to always look at the larger picture and that includes trend lines, mathamatical formulas and classic analysis. The lucky are only lucky until they are not...this was proven by so many stories from people such as "I was up 500k and then went down to 50k in 3 months". There is a method behind my so-called madness...
Mike, you're are showing signs of early onset dementia and brain damage. Trying to compare Mastercard to JDSU and the recent rally to the 2000 dotcom bubble is idiotic. You won't even admit when you're wrong with your original shorts so you change the discussion to the SPX. How convenient.
I am not wrong about this call. Not wrong at all, give it two more days and we should see much lower levels in all of these stocks.
Well, I shorted GOOG this morning, which turned out very well. It was an ideal day to short it at the open, as it went up on the opening, and ended the day down. Right now, I'm expecting to keep that short through Monday at least. Depends on a lot of different things whether I continue to keep it short after that. But if we end Monday close to where we are now, I expect I'll go long again. I see this, far as GOOG is concerned, as a technical pullback, kind of the opposite of a technical bounce on a sharp fall. For now, I think the earlier upside breakout was real. If it manages to keep reasonably steady, I'll stay with that opinion.
Dude, I think the doomsday of recession is upon us. SHORT SPY,QQQs, don't forget to short ALL the big caps because eventually they will go down too! Just wait for the pivot, I'm sure it will come... sooner or latter. Probably today, or tomorrow, but maybe in 3 months? Or 10 years? not really sure... I need to find my glasses...