Short GHL

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by peilthetraveler, Jul 21, 2011.

  1. Current Price $48.56

    Reason to short it? When This company went public about 6 years ago, Greenhill and the other officers owned almost 50% of the company. In the last 3 years alone ALL officers liquidated a minimum of 75% of their shares. Many of them that liquidated all of their shares left already. Greenhill has also been taking a 20 million dollar per year payday on a company that has never has revenue over $300 million. Basically nearly 10% of all revenue goes to the CEO which is nearly unheard of. This does not count the nearly $75 million per year he has received every year from selling his shares. Basically GHL is an atm machine for the officers.

    P/E ratio is 41 and industry average is about 27. Not to mention this stock misses analysts estimates all the time. This stock is way overpriced and as soon as Greenhill sells his last 1.3 million shares(4.5% of company) he has left, he will leave (and Bok who owns 1.5% will likely leave at the same time.) Then you will see this company's stock drop like a rock. I cant say that this would go to zero, but I'm sure there is a strong probability that it will go sub $20 in the next 12 months. Greenhill and Bok are too greedy not to cash out the last of their shares.
  2. Aug 2, 2011

    Price is now at $41.96 which is about a 15% gain in under 2 weeks had you shorted with me. I'm still expecting another 50% drop or so down to $20 in the next 12 months. (when I say next 12 months, I mean anytime between now and 12 months, not exactly 12 months from now.)
  3. Aug. 22.

    Current price $33.82. If you shorted on august 2nd when I made the last post, thats a 20%+ gain.

    Did anyone take my advice on this one? Still plenty of room on the downside. If anyone shorts now, I expect it to still go to around $20 (give or take a few dollars). Soon as there is mention of greenhill leaving it will really tank (not that it hasnt been tanking recently)