What is your expectation? 1 year, 5 years? I find it hard to have expectations that go out more than a month.
I am afraid I am not knowledgeable timewise anymore than you do, but I'd advise to have a closer look at the monthly chart (that's where I got my target), the weekly can help also ...
I traded GLD options as a market maker before 2011. Vol was higher back then with front months around 17 to 20 and back months as high as 28ish. I have not looked at that in years but I expect the entire curve is lower.
monthly has a huge bull flag, weekly gave a buy signal when the inside bar broke up at sma9 ... we still have to break out of the flag, then we'll see a retrace and then we should head for my target, since it's a monthly chart you will need to have patience, but it's a goal 80 % from here, so there is money to be made ...
Monthly has more of a pennant forming. I too think gold will be significantly higher in the future but not near future. Notice we are at resistance on this pennant flag as well. I expect a retest of the $1045 low and possibly even as low as $950ish based on this chart. I would NOT classify this as a breakout of a bull flag. At least not until price breaks above $1300 on this chart.
no of course we haven't seen the pennant of flag breakout, but weekly showed an ib breakout with the trend, so we are heading for that line
Agree with support around $21 but I think that will be weak and we will test $18.52. We will see how price responds there at that $21 level. If it looks like stronger support I may get out of trade there. Thank you.
BTW Silver has allready broken the weekly pennant, it retraced and is about to give a scond signal which will be my entry. I am planning to buy on monday or at the close if everything goes according to plan