I guess what I am saying is that when you look at all the prices that could produce a negative outcome and then look at all the prices that could produce a positive outcome, well.......you really have a very very narrow window of opportunity. It's like shooting a target from a very far distance but you better hit the center of the tgt. Not much room for error is it? Now notice that the worst pain is to the upside. Also notice that Ebay is making a new 52 week high. Also notice that this market is ripping to the upside with no end in sight. So you make the call on this one.
Mav, can't let it alone, hehehe. You're over the top, I find the obsession with my position curious, and quite pathological. Jeez, are you telling us it's a short straddle, egads! You can hedge your responses 'til hell freezes over, and I can imagine, that when the trade goes +edge, you'll be saying, "even though it made money, it still sucked." Seek help for your fixation, I'm not asking you to underwrite it, really, you're under no obligation. So it begs the question why you would even care? Nobody is forcing anyone to trade here, that the relevant point. I know the risks are open, no sh*t, really? Attention! ET option traders! The risk on the position are (gasp!) OPEN -- and I accept the risks, despite the warnings of Mav, the prop trader. arb.
Absolutely, and I point I should've made... I should not have suggested anyone trade this with me -- in fact, please do not. The risks are open-ended. Thanks Wee -- I will leave it alone, and will post any short follow-ups to the position, but that'll be it for me and ET, receiving and posting what amounts to flaming is too time consuming -- wish everyone well on the board, even Mav. arb.
Do I hear the tea calling the kettle black? Was it not you that went on and on for like 30 posts on james stock's short sp calls position. Maybe I have you confused with someone else. I seem to recall that was you going on and on and on. But maybe I have you confused with someone else. All I did was post a graph of your position. And just for the fun of it, I thought I would post two quotes from you from the Mav's verticals thread. "Understood, I'll stay outta it, directional is totally antithetical to my personal God... I'm always directionally-agnostic. Anyway, I understand what you're trying to accomplish. I'll only add my opinion that directional strategies are best left to the spot markets, long gamma is better utilized in volty-bets. Not to say that I haven't sold my share of otm call and put spreads to take some direction. I see that you're answering requests for directional plays, carry on. arb." And then there is this one that should explain why you even bothered to post this trade. "Never discuss your open options positions in a public forum -- nothing good can come of it. arb." Something I'm also curious about. You told someone on this board that you only traded on the floor for one year at the CBOT. But I found you said on another board that you traded also on the CBOE for 7 years. Then you said you have been off the floor for 5 years. Now add the years you spent in medicine, then add medical school. But you talk like someone who is 25 years old but you must be in your 40's or 50's. I guess I'm saying I am noticing a lot of inconsistencies here with you. One minute you are directionally agnostic, then before you know you are short 20k deltas in EBAY. Then you say never ever post your open positions on a public board then you start an entire thread dedicated to your open position. Hmmm. Your a tricky guy to make out riskarb.
Mav why do you insist on acting like such a fucking lame? The guy didn't get the book he trades by chance and he most definately hasn't stayed in the game as long as he has by chance. The guys profit potential on this play alone is more than likely higher than your entire net worth! And I don't say this to imply that you should bow down and kiss his ass, or agree with everything he says, if you don't like the play, then by all means say so - once! Where the fuck do kids like you get the cajones to talk down to someone who was playing and has lasted since you were sucking on your mommies titties? I mean seriously bro what the fuck have you ever done? Get a life man, go out and get laid, stop wasting all your time spouting your right-wing nonsense on the chit-chat forum and antagonizing someone you would be much better spent trying to learn from. I don't give a fuck how much you think you know about options or the game of trading, your ego is way too stiff to last in this game for very long, so enjoy it while it lasts man... tick tock tick tock tick tock... maybe after you blow out you can run for office or something... this is officially my last post on ET, I have finnally after 4 years had enough, peace and good riddance to all you fuckin bannanaheads on this board!
Not passing judgement about the merits of the trade, but the question as always is what the PROBABILITY of profit is vs LOSS, not the raw price range of same. If you can justify the trade at a 95% prob of gain, and a 4.99% of loss, and maybe .01% of getting blown away and carried out on a stretcher, then maybe its a good trade.