short EUR/USD...

Discussion in 'Forex' started by empee, Oct 18, 2005.

  1. empee


    well, i put on a monster trade (well for me anyway) going long the US dollar last night. so far its up around 50 pips but I'm looking for a big move coming up, I'm using margin (obviously) and have most of my account tied up in this, its one of those 1-2 monster traders u get a year.

    Just curious if anyone else is short this pair. I'm not sure when I'll be exiting yet but the move COULD be beyond 400+ pips.. just have to wait and see.

    I originally put on this trade with a 10 PIP stop so you can guess the risk reward is pretty good, as a side note I had to put it on twice cause I stopped out -2 pips on the first one ;)
  2. That's way to risky for me, i only put up 25% of my account on a single trade at the most. :)

    Sounds like a good trade as of now
    Good luck bud
  3. empee


    yeah, i used about 75% exposure. Current stop is breakeven but if there is some news we know how stops work :) I actually used futures intead of straight currency so my leverage is only 30:1 instead of 50:1.

    Lets see how it works out.. I get 1-2 trades like this per year and if it works it makes most of my gains, so lets see what happens.

    Thanks for the hope :)

    I guess I do some bread and butter trades, and this is one of my rare home-run swing trades; its at least unusual and exciting in that way, as they are very rare.

    Now its just the patience to hold on and not cover too soon if it goes my way :)

    I approximately went short around 1.2000 on the EUR/USD cash pair (1.2041 on the december future).
  4. Ultimate target 1.1000 if you believe in interest rate fundamentals and the chart (see below).

    I'm looking at this short term double bottom at 1.1950ish. Not sure if the market respects it and heads up again b4 dropping, or disregards it, as it is a bit of a weak pattern. Would prefer to get long size USD from 1.22-1.24 legging in if given the opportunity. Sure you want to ride it out to 1.24 with your full position from here?
    • eur.png
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  5. Deptrai


    I am long USDCHF at 1.2815 since Sunday. I am looking to close it out around 1.3227 (4/25/04 weekly high). This should correspond to about 1.1757 on EURUSD. Anyway, 1.1900 needs to be broken as soon as possible. You don't want anyone to look at the EURUSD chart and say "triple bottom".
  6. empee


    my stop is currently breakeven, so if it does double bottom and reject then i'll be out, the trade had a =10= PIP stop so this is a surgical entry, usually i have to enter 2-3 times, and this case I had to take 2 pips stop on a trade before this to enter.

    This trade is PURELY technical. I use no fundamental information.

    Thus, if this thing reverses I'll get out hopefully around breakeven (assuming there isn't monster slippage); I WILL NOT be riding this trade beyond my breakeven stop.

    I do not scale/in out at all normally. Depending on hwo this moves I may consider scaling out but I expect I will cover all at once.

    If it does go my way, the risk/reward is so insanely good I had to take the trade.
  7. empee



    as a side note, looking at your png, I noticed your 14 period rsi is showing a pretty nice head and shoulders pattern!
  8. I read somewhat less into the RSI than maybe I should... mostly looking for divergence, etc... hadn't really thought of that.
  10. empee


    thats pretty cool, is there a direct way to that app on the
    #10     Oct 18, 2005