ASusilovic,,, I like your style Short EUR/USD 1.4163, target 1,2619. See you there... (I'm half with you)... How much heat are you willing to take on this trade, a couple of hundred points?
If that weekly wedge breaks to the downside, chances to see high 1.2000's do exist indeed. Looks good R/R long term trade to me.
I'm definitely a contrarian here and I'm expecting a stronger Eur in the course of this year, I can see 1.5 and beyond at the end of this year. I didn't see any of the reson that got you in this trade. As far as I'm concern the line of least resistance is still to the upside, do you see what you are trying to fighting back. you can't know for sure taking in consideration the actual market enviroment and the fundamentals, how far it will go. For it to go that far away(1.2619) there is need to be a strong catalyst that would trigger a sell of. In the EU zone interest rates are gone to be raised in the near future, this is cernanity and they are left without any options but to raise them if not now lately for sure ,that will expand this current movement in the EURUSD further up, and also the QE2 is still in progress and will further depreciate the USD. regards!
The trend has been bullish since almost the beginning of 2011. I see no reason to risk betting against that until the tide clearly changes.