It is now around 8.50PM. I just started selling EUR/JPY at around 158 all the way up to 158.16. I will see what it will do. It is really running wild. Atticus: you are right on the money. It hit 156 area and then run up as if chased by someone! Addition: I just took some 25 pips or so as profits on part of position (I hope it will bounce back up so I can re-put them back).
who the hell is selling so much YEN at the open tonight? any ideas or any news coming across the wires?
I think it is not the Yen, but dollar buying. Because Asia is now open, and if asians buy dollar, they sell Yen, so the other pairs would appear good in front of Yen. If my theory is correct, we should be able to see EUR dumping in european session and american one as then European would be buying dollar and selling euro. The level of where EUR/JPY is an important level (around 55 day moving average which is a sort of border of up vs. down territory).
I think it still would go down to 156.80 to 157 area. I am thinking that if it bounce up, and fails, I will short it again. My problem is that it may not bounce up high enough to short it at a reasonable point, and I would then miss on the move down to 157.00 if it happens. What do you think (I will play it as I think, but I am interested to read views)?
Just started selling again at 157.75 at around 10.05PM. Addition: at 10.23PM a new leg down has started I think. Looking for 157.30 area as next station.
I covered the exotic at 64/100 for 19 basis with spot at 157.85. $14.8k net of the 5-lot loss on the ES futures. I used the proceeds to purchase the 4/7/08 NY Fix 153.00//161.80 EURJPY DNT for 55/100. I may hedge via the European expiry range in a few days.
Congrats! That is a lot of change for a few days "work". Why you did not keep it for more if I can ask? I think it would go to 100/100 ( or close before the end)? But I think money in the bank is far better than money in the bushes! Someone got to tell those "bankers" that they are running headless with money laying in the street and thanking for picking it up (and keeping it) If I were a banker, I would just pay you a salary and ask you to stay home (just do not do anything to his bankers).
The move at 10.23PM was a fake. Now I think the up move is close to over (close an important technical point). I am getting ready to short again once I have a confirmation of the failure. I hope it will take place in the area of 157.95 or 158.15. Then I will feel good about the down move. Addition: I am now short (11:09PM). I hope it will work! This is likely a failure and beginning of a good down leg (50 pips of so?).