You analysis and work is interesting and extensive. I think this pair would go down from here. Your analysis shows that it cannot go beyond the max you found, but it can go under before that max. My numbers tell me that in the next few hours/days, the most likely path is down (at least below 166.00). I try to limit my prediction to short term and swim with the flow. It can dump (down) anytime. If it goes down first station should be 165.60. From there, 165.40. If if it goes beyond that with no reaction, all hell can break lose. Cheers, RFT
Overall at this point it is 75% in the bull favor, but yes it is due for a pull back, but the US indexes are creating a rally. The USD dollar is also causing the rally! The problem is it is closing above the 1998 high 08/02 Weekly...Daily is up Weekly is making higher lows
The trend line break on the 15min should signal a up move on the Eur/JPY. On 15 There is a up signal waiting to confirm by T/L break. Have a good day!
At 10AM, I issued a call of starting to scale in on short side, starting in area of 166.50. For more details, the link is: http://financialtraders.blogspot.com/2008/06/forex-trading-currency-trading-eur-jpy_12.html
Right now 166.72 Eur/JPY all automated system are pointing up. Can no longer trade manually! Reason our business pickup in the summer time. No time to sit beside the computer.
1. I took profit on this one (but not much) about 17 pips. 2. I am now busy with other things, but my earlier analysis should stay correct. The last time I did the analysis, strong sellers should be in area of 166.75 to 166.80. I would short it fallas! I will post details at: http://financialtraders.blogspot.com
How sure are you? Did anything change dramatically? The last time I study it you should short it in area of 166.70 to 166.80. I will be surprised if my analysis is not correct. But I will restudy it.
6:18PM: I posted in link below that I started my shorting activities for this pair in area of 166.80 to 166.85. Good luck to you and to me. Link is: http://financialtraders.blogspot.com
Already up 20 PIPS for above entry and a little more on other entries! EUR/JPY is now at 166.65. Now I have to move to the mode of managing the position. Cheers, RFT