I still think there is a floor on EURJPY, but we'll have to see if we test 1300 on SPX. Data out of Japan has been strong.
Thanks for letting me know on the Japan info. I was not aware of it. My main focus is now on the EUR. I just think that I will sell off. Following your analysis, I think I am going to play it with EUR/USD. I am now shorting the rallies on that pair. Addition: I just took off whatever I shorted at 157.37. The 1-minute chart says up, so I will keep only the earlier 1/4 I shorted at 157.78.
Mods: this thread needs a cleaning. If anyone wants more info on "allenhobbs" you can simply PM me. I'll even supply password for the doc-search.
Sure Barry. I assume you meant "arbitrage" but this trade doesn't qualify. I am long the 152/160 DNT and long ES hedge as a proxy. The hedge is sized to lose no more than 20% of the exposure taken on the DNT under 2 sigmas on ES/SPX. I can take heat on ES down to 1290 before I take a loss of 20% of the notional exposure on the EURJPY exotic. So my hard-stop is at 1290. The 900% return was the result of a modeling error at Oanda. It's no longer exploitable and that 900% was the result on trading short gamma European binary range trades, unhedged. The hedged accounts did ~300% over four months.
I will be happy to delete any posts the thread starter "riskfreetrading" considers not relevant to the direction he wishes the thread to go. He just needs to say so. Apart from that, as usual, the flaming going on is two-sided. No party is more or less guilty than the other.
I just logged right now and apparently a lot of things happened since I logged off sometime yesterday afternoon. You have my permission, and encouragement, to delete whatever you think does not contribute to the topic of this thread (INCLUDING this post you now reading). I did not read all the posts since yesterday, so please forgive me if I am not giving you here which posts should stay or which should not. I appreciate you asking for my permission, and thank you for your time and effort that you will put in this. Thank you. I am in a hurry now, so sorry about this short note. best to all. I think that we can all learn something from one another.