In order not to missed out on a possible move down on EUR/USD, I just sold 1/4 of position. This may not be well timed (it may even be wrong). But if correct, it should lead to a 15 to 30 pips gain soon. Might add to it later, after I am done with this other thing that needs my attention. Entry was around 1.5677. Time around 3:20PM. Direction Short. Pair EUR/USD
O.K. so your thinking sell EUR/U soon. On 1 hour charts I do see what could be the finishing of an ABC up from 5550, now at 5690ish Exited E/J at 160.30 area as the ABC down could be done actually, if not the B up from 160.25 is happening with C down further, later. If it proceeds lower then will watch for potential bounce for upward trend resumption.
4:29PM: shorted 1/4 of position on EUR/JPY. ENtry at 160.70. 4:37PM: another 1/4 is in at 160.71 on short side EUR/JPY. Stops have been placed. Let us now see if the ship will head south. I did not read the comments of others as I have been busy with other things, but thanks for all input. I will read them and comment if necessary (sorry about the delay), as well as give the rationale I mentioned in a previous post. I have to attend to other matters. Have good trading (for both bulls and bears (both can be profitable, it all depends on timing and money management)).
5:21PM: Just took 1/4 of position off (to take some gains). +23 pips. Closed at 160.48. Will re-put it if move up and fail, assuming I will be there on my computer if and when all this happens.
8:44PM EDT: I took 1/4 off on the 3/4 short position on EUR/JPY. Gain on this 1/4 is 50 pips (bought back at 160.20). Keeping the 1/2 position for more. I will study where to place stops. So in summary today's gains are: Realized: (10+10+5+5+23+50) pips on 1/4 of a position, which is around +100 pips on 1/4 of position or 25 pips for the whole position. Unrealized gains now stand at 30 pips per 1/4 of position using current market (@ around 8:47PM, which is around 160.16).
8:57PM: took off the 1/4 of the position mentioned in the above post. Objective of +20 pips achieved. Covered at 1.5655. It seems to be going down more, but since I did not study it carefully I thought to just take my profits and also because I had only a 1/4 of position so I could not scale out more effectively. 9:21PM: I just checked my trading account. I got stopped on 1/4 (1/2 of the 1/2 that remained). Stopped with a gain of +20 pips.
Just checked out a chart of BP/JPY vs SP500 and they are almost exactly correlated! Here I thought I was being a genius being short this pair for the past few months, when all I was doing was making a US stock market call (which is a loser's game). What is the reason for this? Is it that falling stocks cause an unwinding of the yen carry trade i.e. folks have to buy back the yen they've been short.
There is a lag time between the straight currency and the ES. For example if there is a spike there is a time delay with the eu, gpy etc. These can be a nice bonus for you weekly trades because there not linked to the us dollar. If it is linked in a pair>>> the pair will show almost instant reaction in a spike if it is linked to the usd. This can be useful in a news situation. I have seen lags up to one Hour. Oil went up last night the the SP is at crawling state >>>>sideways. Watch your pairs the SP just turn up but not confirmed.
Look at 5AM the SP 500 and the E/J turning at the same time what does that tell you?? The sp 500 is traded overseas one lead the other to give you advanced warning of a pending trade. Mikes trading Jewels>>>have a good day!