Short that pair now at 156.40. I just went short! Time is now 1.15Pm March 25. Do not say I did not tell you. Comments are welcome, particularly from the bulls (and the hogs if any).
HI Atticus. Yesterday I took half the position off for 10 pips, and I got stopped on the other half at price of entry. So only 5 pips on the whole position. The equities were staying too much at the top, and when that happens it means people are not paying back the Yen that they may have used in their carry trade. What do you think of this pair? I noticed (but after it was too late) your great call to go long that pair last week or so. I missed that move. PS: I am now not logged on OANDA. Does any one know where that pair is now? I would appreciate it. I may not be able to log back for a couple of hours, and I hope that pair does not go against me, as I do not even know if I placed my stops on not.
1.5648 last. I watch swiss-yen closely as it's the neutral yen swap and not a target of the carry trade. It's remaining well-bid.
Thanks Atticus. I was starting to worry as I saw the equities moving higher, as this would imply strength in EUR/JPY. Following CHF/JPY is an original idea. Do you think there is a leading-following relationship betwen equities and the JPY? If yes, which one do you think starts the move first (which I consider as "the leader"). I will check CHF/JPY in the future. It makes perfect sense to watch it for many reasons. Do you use that pair (CHF/JPY) to follow Gold?
You're welcome. It's a nice representation of yen strength/weakness due to the flat swap rate. I base all of my yen-options trading in EUR, GBP and USD on CHFJPY price and volatility. I've traded index markets based-upon yen as a leading indicator, but there is significant drift seen in carry markets on index trends. I would be a natural buyer (seller) of yen when the SPX closes on its low (high) of the session. It's the only yen chart on my screen. It's trading in lock-step with SPX here. It came off the Euro-session highs on this 4-handle move lower in SPX. I don't watch gold unless I am hedging spot-holdings.
Thanks. I just logged in now, and the price is almost the same as where I shorted it. I do not like to pay carry to someone else when I do not make profits, so I am considering to take any few pips I have and wait for the move to take place to join it. If it moves higher, I will stay on the sideline.
Just covered half of the position for 6 pips gain. I did not take all off as i noticed some weakness in dow and other indices 10 minutes ago. I will revisit this position during asian session. I will give what is left some room. I will re-evaluate and may put back the half I just took off if and when a clear down trend develops. For the moment, I do not like the flatness of it and the possibility of it to go to 157 as it does not seem to be afraid of the technical grounds I thought that pair should be afraid off (it respected them so far, but it did not run away from them, and that is why I have to become conservative here). Good trading everybody (Particularly Atticus. As always he is very kind to provide many valuable answers).
Just to inform the readers of this thread that earlier this evening (March 25), I closed the second half of the position for a 25 pips gain (at 1.5612). I was looking for more, but it is not moving as fast as I wanted it to be, so I just took the position off. I will see what happens tomorrow. If equities become weak tomorrow (Wednesday) and if the pair follows along than I might consider re-entering. The asia session is sort of dull so far.
Shorted EUR/JPY at 157.20 around 30 minutes ago. Equities finished in red today, 157 area seem to be a resistance, and tomorrow is a Thursday which usually coincides with equity market retreats. I entered 50% of my position. If there is a bounce up to 157.50 area, I would enter the rest of position if and after a weakness is shown. 156.80 seems to be within striking distance from now to asian trading session. I expect a fight with bulls in that area. I will determine what to do once we are there. If bulls win that fight, I might take 50% off of the current open position, with the intention to reload on a bounce up.