Does anyone else think right now is a great moment to short ES? I am feeling 1290 at some point tomorrow.
Speaking of Shorting strategies, there is an opportunity coming up. On the Last Trading Day of the month (Monday), the market has dropped an average of 5 points from 2PM EST until 3PM EST 70% of the time in the past 12 years.
That is interesting. Where did you come up with that statistic? My idea would have been blown out of the water regardless. Definitely did not think we would top yesterday's highs this morning / afternoon.
Did you know also that the S&P500 can be predicted with 90% accuracy (or something ridiculous anyway) by elephant migration patterns in Africa? Predicting based on history is usually not reliable, although based on common sense sometimes is. Previously mondays were green very often, but you might not have noticed until this phenomenon became statistically relevant. Then people started noticing, writing about it in blogs and now friday is outperformance day and people are starting to take note of that. So what is the next step? Continued friday outperformance? (You could certainly try the it works until it doesn't approach with that) Or maybe thursday outperformance as they start frontrunning the friday frontrunning? Or perhaps back to monday because there are enough people anticipating thursday frontrunning, that they take the other side (and then maybe restoring the natural monday effect caused by fund flows etc)
Natural tendencies exist. Obviously, natural tendencies are also impacted by other market factors, which could account for the 30% of the time the tendency does not happen. It's the people that can't find the natural tendencies of a market that tend to disagree- and no amount of arguing or logic will change their view.