I doubled on the second entry, but I should've added more earlier. As a rule, I like to start with about 30%, then add a further 30% when I'm comfortable the trade is going my way, with the option to add another 30% if the market really starts to scream in my direction. But all my entries need to be at least 50 points from my profit target. Those last two trades were roughly 150 and 100 points from my profit target. I should've added more on Thursday's pullback but the market was so wild I decided to trade conservative. I'm looking for a pullback to about 7250 on FDAX for my next potential long entry. My models are still bullish for both the Dax and EXTX50 so I don't think we will sell lower than that in the next day or two.
As of close Tuesday, ESTX50 is now in the buy zone based on my models, although if we get some negative economic data during the US session Wednesday, I think it will push down further. Any weakness from hear is a buying opportunity. The Dax is still near fair value so no trade as yet. May get the pullback during the US session Wednesday or possibly the open of the Euro session Thursday. I'm expecting a deal on US debt to push markets higher right through to about the 4th of August, so I want to position myself for a big long upswing.
As per my last post, the FDAX has now traded into the buy zone. It is a buy for Thursday morning with a new high target of at least 7400. The market internals are suggesting that the US debt ceiling is a non issue and will be resolved. My models are saying that the smart money is long and that I should be long too. My mind is saying staying to be careful and stay flat until the decision comes through. But if we get a decision on Sunday the market will gap up and the opportunity will be lost. Decisions. Decisions.
i got sell eur signal and all bit confusing. dont like this: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...e-deal-for-moore/story-fn91wd6x-1226103522452 mqg down 4.5% staying out for now.
I observe that there is still worry given that dax is 2+% down and DJ is a bit below 0. We get bad US news and longs will be stopped out and I'll loose premium. Then only Asul will make money on convexity.
I got long on open. Wearing a bit of heat at present. But I think you'll see the market bounce a bit on Friday as the smart money takes advantage of the fear. You might as well be long over the weekend because if the US defaults, all those numbers in your trading account no longer mean anything.