I agree with you. Exact timing is not possible, but very high probability that smart money is hesitating to accumulate further long positions.
05/16/2007, 932992, 1352961, 2285953, 1.45 05/17/2007, 905016, 1099667, 2004683, 1.22 05/18/2007, 686096, 1435048, 2121144, 2.09 05/21/2007, 573064, 1148792, 1721856, 2.00 05/22/2007, 316277, 1218500, 1534777, 3.85 05/23/2007, 578144, 946676, 1524820, 1.64 Short covering...
Really bad timing, makloda! Sorry for you. As you can see I was right with my assumption that a correction is near. My target for ES has been 1517. We went much further. Well, I contribute these exaggerations especially to the quant traders. A lot of computer-related unsophisticated herd-like trading is going on in the markets. Guys looking at "indicators" like "Momentum", "Bollinger Bands", "360 Minute Charts" and bla, bla, bla...
Yea it's part of the game, looks like I gave away 100 points, and I had a couple contracts on Did you have more luck or got out early too?
Well as I expected the sell-off, I build up my short positions in the DAX and also in ES. Flattened ES at 1522.25 and 1517.50. Flattened one part of my DAX positions at 7703,50 and 7688.50. I have to reposition my downside target for the DAX : raising from 7590 to 7618 - 7625. Still bearish for this market and for ES, too. I am a seller on any rally. Still waiting to sell some DAX at 7553.00.