Best indicator for a selloff in the US is the OEX PCR Ratio. As of yesterday it stays at 3,85. Therefore : Look for the DOW and ES to correct today massively -> DAX will fall too, hard. Take a look at the Put-Call-Ratio : 05/15/2007, 839166, 1131113, 1970279, 1.35 05/16/2007, 932992, 1352961, 2285953, 1.45 05/17/2007, 905016, 1099667, 2004683, 1.22 05/18/2007, 686096, 1435048, 2121144, 2.09 05/21/2007, 573064, 1148792, 1721856, 2.00 05/22/2007, 316277, 1218500, 1534777, 3.85 Good luck !
I wouldn't call the IPCR as a "sell off indicator" but it's a good gauge how defensive the smart money is. Usually you will see the IPCR over 3 or even 4 after a few consecutive up days. Well I woudln't mind if the smart money was right this time.. So I can cover that POS DAX
the last time we had a OEX PCR of over 3,5 has been at the 23rd of February... when we experienced the massive selloff...
Well I kinda dislike the notion that the smart money is "betting" on a sell-off. They should know you can't time sell-offs and it's next to impossible to systematically become rich playing sell-offs. Hence, I thought "defensive" (protecting recent gains) is a better word