What's likely? We have had some big exhaustive moves and trapped shorts. Sideways range at least this week into next. Early, mid October bank earnings etc. Watching financials. I don't think the picture is rosy and more could come to light. Included, where the H is the USD going. Kiss new highs and November, December down, down, down. Net down for 2007.
Market will continue higher through next years elections. The DOW is only up 15% in the last eight years, not exactly an over extended bull market.
Lets talk basic technical theory. If the index does not get above 1555, then we'll probably see a pullback and a retest of the previous lows. On this retest, it might break down further. Time will tell. The Qs are still looking very healthy...
ok, so it's a visual rorschach, but if you follow channels it looks looks like an extremely tempting bull trap testing the bottom of the prior upward channel. Looks like futures indicate it's going to try to gap back into the upward channel? Something just seems so aesthetically wrong about continuing the upward channel and leaving that breakdown portion hanging like that. Particularly with end of year tax loss selling. A nice pullback would offer a good opportunity for financials to unload all their bad news in one final EOY purging. Or is the worst behind us? Although, considering the response to BSC friday, it looks like the markets not too concerned. Also, looks a lot like a classic elliot abc corrective "2" retrace, leading to a long "3" impulse down. Ok, time to go to bed. <img src="http://elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1616558" border="0" alt=""><br /></font></p></font></p>
We're in a secular bear market, anybody long is delusional, anybody staying short will be rewarded. Many millionaires will be made in the next downswing and it won't be on the long side.
No worries Mak, you trade what you see, I trade what I see. In between who gives a shit what you or I think? Do you know the definition of a secular bear market? You may want to educate yourself a bit.
The question is... Even if this were a secular bear market.. I know for a fact many people just want to be right in their macro analysis and will get their a** handed because they don't know jack about money management. How many were right at the wrong time in 1997, 1998 and 1999 and got wiped out before they would have been finally right in 2000? (I know from your posts you individually trade have both long and short exposure on at all times, so please do not take my jabs personally)