blow off top baby, baby. asia is due for a crashing - vietnam's P/E is near 50. chinese indices up 100% in a year, up over 8% in the last 5 days. it's a classic blow off top. short china.
are you on drug? follow the trend. don't fight with the crowd. i can envaluate stock's value, but i can never predict price. so i can only find UnderValued Stocks. There is NO OverValued Stocks, So I never Short!, except in an arbitrage pair.
Yeah...I don't know about that yet.. Their economy is growing at 10+% RATE, so I am not willing to short them yet. PS. The china telecom company is a beast......with room to expand.....I will be watching
With China rising 1% or more daily, I'd rather stand in front of an oncoming train. YOU short it. Although if it climbs another 30% in the first two weeks of January as fund allocators switch to this sector, I will be locking in those sweet profits for a nice free option. Buy on dips. Last time I saw this was '98, where I kept trying to call a top in AMZN. Learned my lesson there, even though I was eventually right, but too cowed to do anything about it.
the last time i saw this was in 93 when the hang seng parabolically doubled in a year. the next year it was in free fall from january, losing 30% over the course of the year, fund allocaters be damned.
Faber Sells ``We have all the symptoms of a kind of investment mania,'' said Marc Faber, founder and managing director of Marc Faber Ltd., a Hong Kong-based investment company that manages about $300 million. ``We could have a severe setback in the first quarter next year. I'm actually selling.'' http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ai940WHk7DBM&refer=home
Qn 1: Are you current trading China? Is it open to someone in the US? Qn 2: How are you able to short it?
The A-share (China share in RMB, listed in Shanghai/Shenzhen) and H-share (China share in HK Dollar, listed in Hongkong) are going crazy b'coz of many reasons. I will only mention 2 reasons that you may not be aware of: i) smart money are rediscovering that these companies should deserve a much higher PE b'coz many of these firms hv near-monopoly in China ii) foreign firms used to get 12-14% effective tax rate in mainland China while local firms hv it at >25%. China government is going to change it so all firms no matter they are local or foreign will hv tax rate at 25%. So if these companies are enjoying near-monopoly and the tax rate is reduced by 10%, it is very natural that the market is willing to pay a higher PE. Is China market over-bought? I think so but I will definitely not short it now. Many experts in HK hv done so in the last few mths and they perish in frame.
I'm taking another approach (converting from outright long right now). read my little trade journal on my signature. but the gist of it is since 11/30 heng seng china enterprise index is up 18.5%. HSI, on the other hand, is only up 4.5%. most of the most recent runup on the enterprise is the extra boost from china life ipo and neighboring financials moving upward. So my take: long HSI, short HHI.HK (enterprise index). if one sells, it will be the HHI. The HSI is much more balanced and might hold. plus there is a seasonal trend of selling in Jan on heng sang. outright shorting is daring right now. and if this spread moves against me, I'm out quickly and may just go long hhi as well. its more of a seasonal trade after too quick a runup. a slight selloff is due at least, i figure.