[18:49 GMT August 24] USD/CAD opened in NY at 1.1093/96 after trading a range of 1.1076-1.1133. The USD/CAD found an early bid, bolstered by the technical view from some analysts that the low of 1.1050 traded yesterday was now a base for USD/CAD. USD/CAD edged higher, bolstered to highs of 1.1120/25 after the USD rebounded sharply despite the decline in durable goods and new home sales. However, as with other dollar bloc currencies, cross sales tempered CAD weakness with CAD/JPY finding bids on dips to 104.50 and EUR/CAD fell from 1.4250 to 1.4170. This helped CAD rebound with USD/CAD dropping back to 1.1100 into the NY afternoon. Good offers remain at 1.1130/35, a break of which targets gains to 1.1170/75 with buyers on dips to 1.1170/75 and 1.1050. Gold and base metals prices were lower but this was offset by more M&A with Rite Aid paying US$3.4 bln for the US stores of Quebec"s Jean Coutu group. Further support for CAD came from the performance of the Amex oil index which, after a volatile session, ended firmer on the day. No Canadian data for Friday with the focus on Fed"s Bernanke.
[18:21 GMT August 24] The AUD/USD opened in NY at 0.7641/43 with price action caught in a very tight range of 0.7620-45. US data was worse than expected for both durable goods and new home sales which fell 2.4% and 4.3% respectively. But, EUR/USD was unable to rise above 1.2850, triggering a wave of USD buying into the London close. AUD/USD, which also met with consistent selling around 0.7645 despite the weak US numbers, pulled back to 0.7620 but held up in the face of the EUR/USD losses with EUR/AUD buying, a bounce in AUD/NZD off 1.1950 and AUD/JPY buying underpinning the AUD. AUD ends near 0.7623/25. Some negatives emerged for the AUD including a firm tone in the USD index which appears poised to break higher. Gold was easier on the day as was the LMEX index, while the Baltic Dry Index has been trending lower after reaching record highs this month. Of note has been the sharp drop in copper which bodes poorly for AUD with the decline in house building needs for copper wiring and plumbing seen weighing on the commodity and likely to pressure the AUD. AUD support is at 0.7600 and lower at 0.7550/60 with large stops tipped under this level.
AUD Wedgie Update - I was just checking and I entered this trade on July 31. Short at .7666. 50 points or so in 4 weeks. Now that's progress. --usdBull
Here's the scrunched up view so you can see where the studies originate. My first target is down around 6200. Depends on how long the commodities decline. Year or two maybe.
Might start buying copper at $2.00 or so. Whenever it gets to the green line. Not sure what this chart is saying?? Must be saying we are going to find a substitute to compete with copper. Verizon running lots of fiber to homes. Oh yeah, not to any new homes with electrical wire since housing bubble has bursted. What will it be? Probably a fortune in the answer. ---bulll
Hope everyone had a good week. I made some marginal progress on my long term dollar bull trades, but there is a lot of wood left to chop on the way up/down yet. AUDUSD - Entered short on July 30, 2006 Short @ .7666 Current .7562 Up 104 points USDCAD - Entered long on Aug 9, 2006 Long @ 1.1199 Current 1.1095 Down 104 points USDCHF - Entered long on July 30, 2006 Long @1.2320 Current 1.2394 Up 74 points USDJPY - Entered long on July 30, 2006 Long @ 114.59 Current 117.30 Up 271 points Currently up 345 points total. I plan to add to these depending on timing and ,of course, if the USDBULL does bust out of its cage. Good trading everyone, --bull