Discussion in 'Stocks' started by nitro, Sep 11, 2009.
Short SHLD 63.55
Fantastic analysis. I'm convinced.
Probably a very good short. Retail and real estate in the crapper. The wild card is lampert is a "hedge fund" manager. Maybe he has a few "techniques" up his sleeve to prop up the share price.
Fwiw, I haven't heard the word "Sears" in years. By this I mean I haven't seen an tv ad, a flyer or had a person mention shopping at Sears.
Now that I think about it, I always had the impression Sears made their money on cc purchases rather than margin on product. With credit in the dumper this leaves about zero upside in the near term.
Yeah, unless they begin some serious image campaign soon, along with other big changes, they're finished. Another walmart victim.
Sear's clientele is the type that can easily go Kmart or Walmart.
JCPenney, OTOH, really has the "softer side" & the customers there will keep going back. Merchandise is not found at Walmart, either. Maybe short Sears & go long Penney?
Another walmart victim.
Maybe not completely. Imo an assortment of vultures. JCPenny took the clothing sales, HD and Lowes probably the lawn and garden and auto zone the misc mechanic trade.
That was funny. You're editing your post, I'm responding to your post and we're hitting on the same idea's.
I have been waiting for the right time to short SHLD. Imo, the entire sector is in trouble, and SHLD has been teetering on financial ruin for at least a year.
Lampert has near zero interest on the retail value of Sears. He is interested in it mostly as a real estate play:
90 Delta SHLD is the LEH of the retail space, or if lucky, the Bear Stearns of retail.
Short ratio at 13% nearly perfect imo:
This might be a good setup if it gets under the trend line. Dont you see that gap in trading and how it might just fill? Price wanted to get under the trend line, but that gap seems to be attracting it.
I think there is bigger fish to fry out there though right now.
SHORT SHLD IS RIGHT, this stock is headed really far down, I think its going bankrupt which means ZERO.
Anyone thinking SHLD can go up agains WMT, TGT or any other retailer is fooling themselves, this stock is headed WAYYYY down over the next 12 months. Go into one of there stores and see why, I have gone in from time to time, last time was in June, there were more employees than consumers standing around doing absolutely nothing.
WMT new advertising is giving every major retailer a run for its money, for every one sears commercial I see I see 100 WMT commercials, SHLD is over with, chapter 11 is sure to come.
He was very interested in it as a real estate play however now with commercial real estate falling apart everywhere, the land although worth something is useless in this environment since there are MILLIONS of SQ feet of commercial RE now across the country. The downward cycle in commercial RE is just beginning.
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