see thats what I dont understand, no matter which way you spin the news its 100% positive. We can add 45,000 jobs tomorrow and the market will still rise based on the fact that the fed would come out and start cutting rates to keep the economy rolling along. But look at the falling dollar and rising energy prices and guess what, inflation inflation inflation.
Its all BS. And the rest of the world doesn't want to let the currencies appreciate so endless credit is created through recycling. The only problem is consumer spending is slowing even though there is tons of credit still available which is just leading to more cpi inflation.
Thats why this is the right time to buy stocks. Jobs number is good either way. Worse we see a .5% selloff. The Iran situation regarding the hostages has been settled. Oil going back to 60. Bush is less likely to declare war as a result of the positive outcome. inflation isn't a huge issue as bernake has stated. He intends to keep rates stable, BUT if he does hint at growing inflation concerns it trigger a small selloff. The best strategy is to just load up.
Um gas prices AREN'T a big deal. Taking into account inflation gas prices should go up atleast 10 cents a year. People are more than willing to pay 3.2 dollars a gallon. What shoice do they have? walk to work? it is all about supply and deman; the eeconomy runs itself. No need for you to tell the consumer what he can and can't afford. Infaltion is under check, minitrade. CPI and PPI numbers may cause a 1% selloff but the gradual buying trend will resume. Look at the 1 year nasdaq chart. The GREATEST selloff was on Feb 27and that wasn;t the result of any number.
I am bullish on the indexes, but oil back to 60 I dont tink so, contract will roll over in a few day and guess what the forward month is at a $2.00 premium and we will be right back at $66.00 overnight. People will say hey what happened oil was 64 yesterday. Oil is going to be a major problem in the coming years for all markets, just watch.
Commodities especially oil and gas on an inflation adjusted basis are still really cheap. You can't expect to expand the money supply at 10 percent a year and not have an increase in prices for basic goods. The number one reason why stocks are still up is the allure of private equity. How many stocks are now being supported or at least not or shorted because they are possible PE candidates? A lot.