A snapshot of the stock picks section of the newsletter for Friday, May 9th, 2008 The full version of this report is available here for $20 per month
Dave, I got a little "sponsor" tag under my name. We're allowed to post stuff. Sorry you don't like Brad as much as when I was doing it. I'll pass the word along. -peter
Peter, Nice call on BZP. The stock is ripping. Any dates for your next guest appearance on TOS chat? Brad is excellent, but he can't sing. JB
Thanks, JB RNT was also a newsletter call on the same day (Friday morning) with a $23.77 trigger. The stock closed Friday at $24.54, going as high as $24.91 intraday. That should meander upwards to its $26 prior resistance. We remain long SOL, BZP and IBM officially as per the portfolio plays and are looking for any energy stuff on pullbacks. I'll post more stuff tonite, am working on the weekly video now....
In this week's video: -S&P coming into possible buy point -How to use market internals to spot turning points in the broad market -Some long trade ideas in Brazilian bank stocks -Short setups in FARO and FMCN <object width="425" height="350"> <param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/8gvrMTdxUDs"> </param> <embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/8gvrMTdxUDs" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="425" height="350"> </embed> </object> Comments are of course encouraged. Sign up on our site to receive these free videos via email here
You can get these email alerts in real-time along with a daily newsletter for $20 per month here -We bought more IBM as well at 125.20 over the 125.17 prior highs -Bought BBD today at 23.03 -Holding SOL long still from 16.40 -Holding BZP long from 22.05 The FARO short and BBD long was discussed in the video released Sunday night that is in the previous post.
The full version of this report with daily stock picks and real-time email alerts is available here for $20 per month. The Big Picture <img border=5 width= 559 height=659 src="http://www.shadowtrader.net/focus_report_charts2008/080514COMP.gif"><br><br/> <img border=5 width= 559 height=659 src="http://www.shadowtrader.net/focus_report_charts2008/080514NDX.gif"><br><br/> Good Morning, Traders. Solar stocks are back again in a big way with CSIQ blowing away estimates and gapping up to new highs. Following CSIQ's lead, FSLR gapped above a tight range of congestion, allowing us to establish a long entry in the <i>Model Portfolio</I> above the 15-minute high. FSLR is a good example of how to not get caught up in opening gap hype and make the safer entry once the stock can "show and prove". SOL is reporting earnings today before the market so we took off 75% of our position ahead of the report. SOL should follow with some good numbers and if not we have a nice profit buffer with reduced position size. Core sector list finished mixed, as the battle between leaders and laggards ensues. While the leadership of 2008 continues to push higher (Railroads, Oil, Coal , and Natural Gas were the day's biggest winners), the lagging financials (again!) weighed down heavily on the $SPX. Viewing the hourly comparison chart above we can clearly see how the SPX is underperforming small, mid-cap, and tech indices since May 7. The whole point of putting up charts like this one is not to look in the rear-view mirror but to get an idea of where to look when scanning for new stocks. Comparision charts like these can help a trader to "know where to look" so that they have the wind at their back, so to speak. While the S&P is lagging a bit, the the Nasdaq 100 is flexing it's relative strength muscles. The second chart listed above shows an hourly cup and handle pattern in the $NDX. It hasn't really extended out yet over the highs of the cup but it looks imminent which bodes well for those of you with QQQQ in your cupboards or the likes of Apple, Google, etc. We don't really want to end on a down note or sound pessimistic but in the spirit of the <a href="http://shadowtrader.net/glossary.html">top line figures inverted</a> close today we do want to mention that volume was notably higher. NYSE total turnover increased by 20% and Nasdaq by 10%. When that happens and market goes nowhere its often a sign of churning (read: distribution) as bigger institutional players are selling to smaller retail players. We remain long but nimble as always. Treat all stocks like employees. If they don't do their job and go up when they are supposed to go up (BBD) or go down when they are supposed to go down (FARO), just fire them quickly.
Kind of just flipping out of most longs today and yesterday. Solar may have topped out for the time being. Sold SOL from 16.40, it hit $24.50 today Sold FSLR for $19.00 gain in two days on small size. We remain long only partial on BZP with trailing stop now Here's the commentary and chart from tomorrow morning's report which gives our position on the markets right now. The full version of this report with daily stock picks and real-time email alerts is available here for $20 per month <h1>The Big Picture</h1> <img border=5 width= 530 height=630 src="http://www.shadowtrader.net/focus_report_charts2008/080515XBD.gif"><br><br/> Another top line inverted day in the markets as this time it was the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 which finished negative while the other three were in the green. This seems to be the tone as of late as leadership keeps hopping from one foot to the other. In yesterday's commentary we said quite the opposite that the S&P is lagging here. In the bigger picture that is still true but not yesterday as profit taking hit the four letter symbols and the small caps a bit harder than their large cap brethren. Core sector list put in another mixed day and was also in the spirit of the switching leadership as oils and oil services were some of the only losing sectors on the day. Whenever a market gives back substantial morning gains it makes us pause a bit. Note that the <i>ShadowTrader Pro Model Portfolio</i> has been selling into strength for two days now while the getting has been good, rather than put ourselves in any position where we would be forced to sell. The rally is still on by all means but it is of concern to us that its stalling a bit in such early stages off of the last swing low. One of the reasons is that as mentioned above you just didn't get the participation from energy stocks today. We are featuring the chart of the $XBD today to show how little ground financials have gained in these last three days up. It's so important to watch these for a couple of reasons. One is of course the fact that they make up over 20% of the S&P and the other is that when they are weak and the market is still going up, then you know that its a narrow rally and you <i>must</i> be more selective in picking your stocks, keeping yourself in the groups that are "hot" like solar now or recently fertilizers. When something is hot, it goes without the help of the market. When its not, it only goes if the market lifts it along with everything else. Its unfortunate, but this is obviously the type of market we are in. Two days ago, we reported that the rally was looking broader to us as evidenced by the big body white candle circled above on the Broker-Dealer index. At that point we were feeling a lot better about things because the market flashed us a signal that maybe we would not have search as hard to find winners as formerly weak sectors like financials were perking up. Well, obviously that strength turned out to be a flash in the pan and the $XBD is in danger of making a serious head and shoulders here and possibly tanking. If that happens then our target of 1440 on the $SPX is probably not gonna happen anytime soon. We remain selectively bullish here and are going back into scanning mode as we have flipped out of all longs at good profits and are looking for new plays for the end of this week and the beginning of the next.
The full version of this report with daily trading ideas and real-time email alerts is available here for $20 per month The Big Picture <img border=5 width= 530 height=630 src="http://www.shadowtrader.net/focus_report_charts2008/080516USO.gif"> Some strength that seemingly came out of nowhere powered the markets higher yesterday but a look at the intraday crude chart above (using the etf USO as a proxy because this is a stock oriented letter!) may give a clue as to why we got some lift. Either way, the why is not important, but rather the 'what'. As Wednesday's session was a toppping tail doji on the dailies of all the majors, part of yesterday's strength came from the simple element of surpise that the rally that looked like it was going to take a day off didn't and ended up making a fresh two-day high. The daily charts of the broad market averages are all making what we call the "Larry Williams play" where price moves over the top of an inverted hammer. We put a daily SPY chart below to illustrate this point. <img border=5 width= 530 height=630 src="http://www.shadowtrader.net/focus_report_charts2008/080516SPX.gif"> Tomorrow's action should take us right up to 200 day moving averages on the S&P and the Dow, both of which have this very key moving average just above us. The Nasdaq Composite powered through its 200 day which is nothing to sneeze at. The fact that the 'four-letter index' as we sometimes call it didn't pause at all at this usual roadblock is bullish for the prospects of the $SPX and $INDU to do the same. Leadership in big tech names, took the Nasdaq 100 through it as early as May 1st. All in all, this is a good sign for the market going forward. We still see some lagging in the financials as we have been mentioning this week, but as also mentioned the rally can stay narrow and you just have to be more selective. Energy is probably not over, as evidenced by $XOI and $OSX making two day highs today even with the midday drop in crude. Action in POT and MOS today is probably telling us that our recent call on fertilizers being 'over' for now is going to be wrong (no harm-no foul on the short plays on those because they never triggered), Biotechs seem to be building a strong base here, and there is some newfound interest in semiconductors. Pull up your $SOX if they're loose. Sorry, couldn't resist that. Gold is also starting to catch a bid again and may be worth a nibble at these distressed levels.
Markets are a bit overextended right here in to a resistant area. Market internals under the hood are not moving along with the market (negative divergence) due to non-participation in financials Energy (oils, solar) and metals (steel) and a little shipping continue to be where its at but NONE are at buy points right now. Its all here in this VIDEO Still bullish overall just not looking to hit the buy button on Monday morning. The best stuff all needs to pullback essentially.