Uh, my man, help me understand something please note that these are YOUR words, not mine Billpritjr >2. Likely uses Moving Averages to determine trend< You: "First, I would like to say that I have no clue at all what R. Seykota uses...." You state no clue at all, then You: "There is no way that he could be using moving averages unless they are a component of one of his private oscillators." so while having no clue at all as to what he uses (YOUR WORDS, not mine), you then tell us how their is NO WAY he could be using moving averages then.... Trend Fader>the guy probably used something like a simple moving average crossover.. < (again, lets go back to your "no clue" statement, again, YOUR WORDS, not mine) you: "Not a chance!" ................................................................................................... Goldtrade, next time you post maybe you should get your head screwed on straight
"no clue" means that he hasn't gone to the trouble of narrowing it down at all. When he does look at possibilities others like you and TF offer, he doesn't agree with them. There is some direct information about Ed and it does include some stuff that is a factual. He and his associates over the years have traded in several markets. And it is known that he position trades meaning over one day is involved. I really liked the thread you started and there are many facets of it that do help to understand stuff. The thread points out that Ed is a "natural". I really like the idea that a person can trade successfully by just knowing how markets work. I also like Ed's view that keeping your system straight is the best way to attain th highest potential for trading. Ed sure is convinced that his help to others is best done by asking them to keep clear and on the ball mentally. His focus on improving the lot of children is very connected to the quality he strives for in others. Your screwing effort with heads is interesting and kind of OT regarding your quest.
there is another thread here where a person named mr market bought NFI. I suggested that he switch out NFI for HOV on wednesday afternoon. They are both 50 dollar stocks and we were talking about short term gains of 15%. He thinks NFI will do a move to a target of almost 60 in 4 to 6 months. I just wanted to save him some time and do it this week. He didn't go for it and just stopped posting. I was glad to see HOV do as anticipated. I believe stongly in an anticipatory strategy rather than predicting. It is very senible to build an algorithm around anticipation because it just buries so many risk considerations and also keeps your money velocity so high. What symbols do you use to track NASDAQ stuff??
Hi Jack, Just curious...are you still long HOV? If you are...what would it take for you to consider closing the position? Thanks, Gotta Trade
How do you define anticipating versus predicting. The line between the two can be blurry. What are you asking about the NASDAQ stuff? Are you asking what stock symbols I look at to trade?
Yes. Key indicator is volume as a % of the 65 day av. The details. When the volume is in creasing a trend will continue. From the 21st on a 30 min you can see what volume is required to drive price on HOV. You can see the am volume on the 23rd was sig enuf to push price solidly. The DU (dry up) on the pm of 28th did not continue thru the end effects of he 28th, i, e., the volume picked up and the price moved into the high ground for the day. This is a formation indicator which is a FTP (flat top pennant) The Gap up with no retrace is happening in a setting of high volume. In my counting scoring this is a 7. Meaning Price 1 volume 1 and Accumulation 1 give me all three variables as 1's 1,1,1 in binary and 7 in decimal. my scoring cycle goes 7,6,5,4 to get through a Long trend 3,2,1,0 score a short trend. with volume running high this meand "continue" THe flagging of volume with price up is a score of 1,0,0 (Accumulation goes to distribution (a 0 score)). 4 is the number that ends the trend. So when i see the volume flip, then I know i need to consider going out. I do not go out on stops. I go out as the price rises to the peak, traverses the peak and begins to slip off the peak. I am in a multiple trade setting here to enter or exit because of he quantities i trade. They are well above each transaction on a T&S flow sheet (print as some guys here say). I do not trade larger blocks per trade than the Time and sales size blocks that ordinarily go through. And I do several account in parallel on POA besides mine. Go to a MACD (5,13,6) and see that it is entwined and away and rising. This all means the money velocity is rising on HOV. The time price goes into a peaking effort, there is a prior period where the money velocity slows a bit. My reality is that I swap out on the place where money velocities are equal and the exit velocity is falling and the entery velocity is rising. This stuff is far away from strategies based on stops. Stop protect you and your strategy on money velocity is what keeps you pulling profits out of the market. You always need to orient to "lost opportunity costs". you must keep velocity high as possible or you are encountering "costs". The punch line on your question is this. I keep lists of sequences trends go through. I look for "what wasn't that". If a failure to follow the sequence occurs, then i have a "flaw" in the trend. This is way before stops come into play to protect you. The attached chart shows a comparison on NFI nd HOV from a starting swap point. exit NFI and go into HOV weds PM. It's from another thread where i wanted to make a point. Anyway, watch for flagging volume and also a sequence of items that fail to show up. you can then go out at the peak plus and minus.
I do sp.x. and es03m on S&P. On nyse I do indu and dj03m. I wondered what you do on NASDAQ. Predicting is making a bet. You guess and bet on your guess. anticipating is following sequences of events as they unfold. you place a market order for the market to come to your order. when it does you have completed the next step in the sequence that you anticpated. I use a matrix of market operating points. the market follows paths on the matrix. As the market comes adjacent to a cell labelled "break out" I bracket the price situation. You can look at HOV on the late 28th as sitting there adjacent to BO. Because the cell was a FTP late in the day; there was a little bias in the anticipated direction covered by the bracket. The blurriness is something that may go away; if it does then you are on a new higher plateau. If not, then you get to wait a while.
The NFI "buy " the guy suggested was on the day of the first chart. My HOV entry was related to the 21st etc. By putting the NFI and HOV together statring the pm of 21st you can see how the swap on the 28th to dump NFI would work and particulaly how a flagging money velocity indicates an exit. The NFI % volume of 65 day av today is down to 0.61. HOV is pumping at 2.05 as we now pump. NFI is an inverted saucer for formation folks.
dumb me i thought a highlighted chart partially showing on a screen would copy the whole chart. I am putting it on a floppy and bringing it to this machine and attaching it I am not too computer literate