My record for doing this on DJXX is four consecutive rapid reversals and luckily for me I was mentoring at the time with both of our accounts running in real time. So that is four reversals in two accounts where I was bunching trades. That is two yes's. This occured before mini's so, since then I have continued to trade. SCT is the convention I have used for DJXX. Presently, I am trying to wrap up doing a hand off. Part of that is to trade with another local. his account and another I am setting up for myself will allow both of us to use IB and trade ES for the record. As an accomodation for his start up as a beginner, I am guaranteeing his account against any losses. My account is for the record and I will be trading it as a beginner for 120 points percontract, then 120 points per contract as an intermediate, then as SCT from then on. This is to make material for an Appendix that matches the PnL that is currently running. Others are using SCT as well. As they, do I am in touch.
relative to prior bars there are several possibilites. the ones that go with the trend take care of themselves. For all of trading there is aboutone consideration: making money staying on the right side of the trade. Trading is a KISS thing. To ease on down the road you do the minimum to capture the potential there. This thread shows the first consideration of KISS. That is having enough time to do it right. You have to keep up with the market. If you had a stop watch and a set of tasks to do to keep up, then you would test to see if you were. That is all any trading approach is. You keep monitoring and you complete a task sequence on time. Do as few tasks as necessary and get them done on time. Repeat continually. Today is a good example. The monitoring for beginners was best done on the 15 minute chart. A rocket from 1000 to 1016. Start at 11:00 and do MOC. If you want to make more of the potential you have to set up a KISS and get the money out of the market. Use a fractal that allows you to complete your tasks on time. The fractal bars provide the stop watch that you have to keep up with. Your orders sit on the computer all the time ready to forward for execution. You forward as required and find out what happened. To know when to forward orders you use your rules for keeping up with the market. for a given perspective you have a set of two Boolean statements. IF I serves no purpose practically. If just says that you are passing the prior bar close. It is practically useless. If you do not invoke it, you are making money at that time. Nice place. if it gets invoked you must go to work to actively monitor to take an action. One possible action sitting ready to go on your computer. This shows the importance of IF 1.
I parsed this in color. All in all you are in a state of really being on it. It looks like you may not be preparing your next trading orders right after an entry so they could be a point off from when you took action. Taking action to you may mean set up and order and place it. The IF1 thing is a way to get people to prepare. Most people will not. then they watch the bar end happen and they start to get an order ready and then when they do have it ready they place it. By that time the bar is going back to where it was and the former trend is resuming. This makes the first reversal that was late and lost a point a little upsetting. Then you do the intrabar reverse (APA) it is a point off by them too. Doing nothing puts you 2 points ahead. The alternative is that you lose the long trends. as they unfold. I need to suggest that you prepare to do next trades ahead of time if you are not. Or if you are, then things go fairly slow on your feed etc. Bars move as the T&S does, I know you watch it. The sprad is a tick and you are getting hit 4 ticks twice. That is a fast moving T&S when you arrive in the situation. The news bar, bar 7 at 10:00am can do that. There are tough days. Soloing is tough too. ES has liquidity also. Market orders for reversing should show up fairly soon. Using SCT after making 6 times your initial capital is a good place to be. I know that a 240 point minimum gain does get some erosion when a jump up is made to expert. Basically you move from about 7 or 8 trades a day for, say 16 points today as intermediate to about 20 some trades and more profits. 30 of 40 trades can happen when the market is slow. to look at today as a repeat, hack out some trades by taking the 16 points on the 15 min tape and then trade the rest of the day (just from 9:45 to 11:00) using SCT. That am period had 10:00 news. You can use a SCT sheet to run the 9:45 to 11:00. Post the trades and email me so I can catch any stuff in the space. Make your last trade starting at 11:00 from 1000 to 1016 so you see that on the 15 min clearly use iceberg 5,2,3 for that. We need to minimize the pressure in flat periods; letting full points slip by is not normal for traders. If you do about 20 days you will get a few maybe but you will have another 300 points percontract too by then.
Thank you for the detailed response. I worked for a good while on re-doing the day from 9:45 to 11:00 -- but it is much too difficult to tell what I would actually do. A fine example is the entry at the 9:45 bar (long entry at 1001.25). The 9:45 minute swings straight back across 1001.25, so back short at 1001.00. Then long again at 1001.25 during the 9:46 minute. The 9:47 minute swings back across, so back short at 1001.00. The 9:48 minute goes to 1001.25 again, then swings back down so long, then short again at 1001.25 and (hopefully) 1001.00 again. The 9:49 minute goes long again at 1001.25. The net of this is 0.75 down by the time the bar goes its way. You'll note I gave slippage of 0.25 per APA. I take your point that if I see 1001.25, I could likely hit the bid for the reversals and probably avoid that slip most of the time. But I don't know that without seeing it happen. I'm going to rejoin the chat and put in what I see real-time for an hour or so, without trying to trade at the same time. -- Jerome
Grob109, Could you please go into more detail about perspective C. As we dont want any drawdowns, i ultimatley would like to recognize that it is a HVS and reverse at the ends of every 5 min bar length too capture the bar length. As i dont know how too go into HVS modus yet, i dont know how too also recognize when it has ended. My best bet for recognizing when HVS may be over is when you finally get 2 consectuive bars where the second bar had a higher hgih and higher low than the previous or vice versa, lower low and lower high from previous bar. So in the end, i really wanted too ask how do we determine that the market is entering a period of HVS how do we determine that we have exited that market modus of HVS into trending again. jc
After looking at the charts more closely, I noticed that High Volatility Stalls are odd harmonic in nature. Becaue of the odd harmonics, the 1 min macd will peak and trough at price peaks and troughs. jc
That is the situation as you note. This is one of the highest rate of money transfers from edge traders to systematic traders. On Friday I think there were nine consecutive bars of HVS. The stall shifted a step down and except for that the bars alternated red and black consistently all the way through. I periodically introduce a new and more pervasive concept regarding making money. The HVS is a very focused one it turns out. You immediately perceive that this is an opportunity to extract money from edge traders who are caught in a very fast paced whipsawing when they apply a "set up" (usually with no exit strategy associated with the set up*) and then sit there are get screwed. Our focus is on extraction during this persistence period of the edgers. The key strategic element to recognize is that the edgers are on an automatic disciplined failure modus. They do a two step process followed by the market completing their turn. They manually recognize and enter a set up; they place stops; they get taken out by the market. We are the market. The thing we do is never violate mixing data from the slow medium and fast three levels of analysis. We focus on only the one level that is at hand. That is easy. Perspective C (the slow level where C was chosen from A, B, or C as a simple task) says HVS. The middle level, as HVS is applied, is as simple as before, you "go to" the fast level and get to work. The middle level applies to a pair of bars (present and prior on the trading fractal); this is an intrabar situation. You go the the fast level primarily because you are extracting money so fast that only the present bar is involved. So the middle level says go to the fast level and hang out. This is just simply saying that the two bar comparison will not apply. I know the above is redundant. Most traders are on a fast level all the time and they simply continue to take signals from all over the place and mix them. Think of all the posts that talk about sentiment collecting (slow level). It comes from trailing talking heads on the radio or TV that people watch as they trade. Ugh. They are doomed by spuriousness. We apply our stuff to the 1 min bars that spread the HVS of the 5 min single bar out. This is done ONLY under HVS. 1 min bars may never be used otherwise. If they are the trader gets screwed. It is strange to say, but the reason most traders fail is because they trade the 1 minute bars when 1 minute bars cannot synthesize the trend of the market. Trends are not NOW things as 1 minute bars are. To know and get signals from trends you have to be comparative on the fractal that allows the trend comparisons. You may only leave the trading fractal when an intrabar analysis is required. Above is the raison d'etre of "I always leave money on the table" and "I have a hair trigger". HVS is where one 5 minute bar is traversed one or more time during it's formation and existence. It is the time when you make more money than you can make on a fast paced "rocket". I only mentor this to meta experts. It is the highest money velocity extraction that is possible. You actually are using money from pairs of edgers who are giving it to you. You use the IF 1 and IF 2 on 1 minute bars and also apply AA as many times as required with the caveat that you apply it alternatively long and short. This isolates the APA from the IF's by not allowing it to be used without using IF's in between. You cannot use APA consecutively, ever. I draw a horizontal line on the Trading description sheet when I go to work on HVS. It is the limit of efficiency in taking money out of the market. It is literally "cutting and pasting" from a set of four possible orders. A tattoo that keeps you on the right side of the market as usual. The 300 second sequence segways automatically into the next one. Most HVS situations are 2.2 to 3.0 points in ES. The target potential is 2x the HVS volatility every 300 seconds. The nine bars Friday, were exceptionally linked for the segways and they ran @ 3.0. This is about two months profits for the dominate ET'er they tell us. All of this is, of course ridiculous and fits in the category of claims. And if anyone complains to a moderator about this post, the post will probably be expunged. On the other hand, there is always someone on the other side of the edgers, and probably these people are not well represented in ET. Maybe some day they will get a chance here. But not so far, it turns out. They had a contest here recently. One guy screwed up a real losing trade right off (he had no losers for the day, he said); he let the loser sit for most of the day until the price returned to that area of the chart, then he traded that order to get a profit. If you look at the bunch of posters in that thread, nobody knew what was going on at all. You can't post trades on ET satisfactorily if you are a systems trader. Mostly because of being busy and secondly because of the quality and capability of ET. * edge strategies are notorious for focusing on easily identifiable patterns (A habitual exercise conducted by people who do not understand making money in markets, nor markets themselves) that can be used as "set ups". Instead of following through reasonably (this is a statement about thinking) and dealing with the other half of the construct: exiting. They turn to risk management in an unknown situation. For some reason they do back testing on set up entries and an R/R they invented which in turn yields a "drawdown limit". A convention of 8 consecutive losses then sizes their application of capital. You see about 5 Band-Aids used to avoid dealing with being understanding (understanding of the market). What systematic traders do is simply extract the money from these people. The crucial opportunity is to take it away is when the drawdown limit is reached. Edge traders savor discipline. This discipline feeds the market money continually. Only breaches of discipline prevent the flow. The breaches are uniformly classified as when they quit. There are two levels of quitting. Consecutive set up entries that fail. And overall concessions of set up failure and quitting the setup. "I average 1 point a day" is the approximate place people get to just prior to not making any money per day. There is not a lot of wiggle room between one point and 0 points.