Setting up an ES trading plan

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by Georgii, Jun 15, 2013.

  1. wrbtrader

    wrbtrader

    1. I'm trying to get an idea of what a realistic intra-day range is for the ES and how many points I should expect to play for. It appears anything under 2 points is uneconomical unless you lease a seat and play a negative risk/reward game. Lately we've been seeing some big ranges but I've also seen days where the ES is just 3 points wide. What's the best way to identify those days and stay away from them? Any time of year where they happen more? Any time of year where the ES tends to be trendier?

    Answer: You need to get access historical data and you can then easily determine the average range of Emini ES futures or any other trading instrument. Also, whatever strategy you're using...didn't you do any backtesting to determine how many points it will give you on average trading day. ???

    If not, you shouldn't be trading until you know the performance of your trading strategy to determine its results in comparison that 2 point number.

    Big range days in any trading instruments are commonly (most of the time) related to key market events you see on any economic calendar or breaking global news that's impacting many markets at the same time like Crude Oil, Gold, Eminis, Eurex, U.S. Dollar, Euro and such.

    That's the only way you'll know when big range days will commonly occur because they typically contain big volatility. Next, let your trade strategy help you determine which direction to trade on those expected volatile trading days.

    2. I've seen some people say that 2-3 intraday setups is optimal. Others go on to do up to 9 trades a day or even more (I've heard of up to 20). I'm not counting those who are doing market maker type of stuff, of course. I'm just trying to get a realistic read on this so I'm not overtrading or on the other end, not pushing myself far enough.

    This is another strategy specific question. Only your trade signal strategy can tell you what its typical performance will be. For hypothetical example, trade strategy A has on average about 15 signals per day and trade strategy B has on average about 5 signals per day.

    If you trade strategy A and do only 7 trades...you're under trading. Thus, you've either ignored trades or missed them for whatever reasons (e.g. missed part of the trading day because of a personal appointment with the dentist). In contrast, if you take 7 trades via trade strategy 7, you either overtraded via taking trades that were not valid signals or it was a volatile trading day that produced additional valid trade signals.

    By the way, overtrading is phrase associated with taking trades that's not valid trade signals. Thus, its never overtrading if the trades are valid trade signals.

    3. Unlike the FX market, the ES market doesn't seem to do that much during Globex with a few exceptions. Those of you who trade Globex (we're excluding the 8:30 am news release times), I imagine the main technical themes are probably more range bound?

    Once again, Emini ES futures overnight price action (Globex) are commonly dictated by key market events occurring overnight.

    4. There are some ES traders who 'trade the open'. I notice that its hard for me to really understand what the heck is going on during that time and its always best to wait at least 15-30 minutes to get some price architecture going (many ES traders I've seen hide Globex once the market opens). I'm curious to see if there are people who dive in on the first bar and what ideas they work off of, and whether they hide the Globex when doing so or not.

    Best to stay away from any price action you don't understand regardless to the time of day they are occurring.

    If the first bar is a valid trade signal...take the trade. If its not a valid trade signal...don't take the trade. Its as simple as that. I myself only trade the first bar of the day of Emini ES or any other trading instrument I'm following if I get a valid trade signal in that first bar or any other bar.

    As to ideas, most aren't going to share any in-depth details with an anonymous person except for generalities. I myself like to see many different markets having similar like increasing volatility in the first bar of my trading instrument even if the markets actual price direction are different.

    5. Some people swear by DOM, others are fine with chart patterns. The problem is I simply have no idea how to read DOM and am wondering if its worth bothering at all given the learning curve.

    Stick with what you know. Thus, if you don't understand DOM...stay away from it. Therefore, I will assume DOM has nothing to do with your current trade strategy and you've been trading chart patterns of some sort. Thus, best to perfect what you know before taking on what others may be doing unless those chart patterns aren't profitable for you and you want to then learn something else that may be profitable.

    Simple rule, if it works...it ain't broke...keep using it. If it does not work, learn something else.
     
    #11     Jun 16, 2013
  2. Sergio77

    Sergio77

    What is the "TopStepTrader combine " and why trading ES? THis thing is just too liquid. Too liquid = no opportunities.
     
    #12     Jun 22, 2013