========== Re; id on market direction & probabilities of reversal. Like Investors Business Daily , like thier newspaper has a 200 day moving average; and believe it or not cnbc.com has somwhat accurate 200 day moving averages.......[not TV , but thier free website] Even though price of books usually have a good risk /reward ratio; even IBD has a FREE 10 day trial. Option market makers seem to like for example $42 calls,42 puts,in JAN, FEB,MAR, contracts and nice volume there. So ,Option Trader, i agree with the option market-money makers; $42 QQQQ is a good small time frame precision reversal benchmark, even in a good uptrend, like tek underlying stocks are still in , a nice uptrend.
Can someone please email me at least 5 mins before they enter a profitable trade? Please include entry and exit points. Also I would like to know whether it will be raining in Rome on March 24th 2007, I am planning a trip and need to know what to wear. Oh, and could you tell me when I will finally get laid without paying for it. It has been 5 years and I trade a mean reverting system, so that means it has to happen soon, right? 5yr
So you are saying, to you, stock trading is not much different than gambling in Vegas. That is not my perception; the fact there are services out there with good track records on Index trading says something.
No I think trading is all about risk management and using it at the appropriate times. If you know you will win 45% of the time and your winners are three times as big as your losers then you should trade. Gambling your expected return is negative whereas in trade in can be positive. Calling bottoms and tops is or reversal areas is futile. You will not see it until it is formed and the few occassions that you do see it will not pay for the times you were wrong. And yes saying that the dow will not reach 12000 by the end of 06 is the same as saying that the roulette ball will not fall on a number higher than 30, your guessing. The times you are right are great, your friends pat you on the back and you think you are pretty smart, you may even believe that you have some sort of predictive powers, but unles you have a cyrstal ball you are still guessing. You have taken it a step farther, you realize that you can't call bottoms, tops, or reversals and are looking to pay someone to do it for you. This is just sad, as a trader you have chosen a very independant profession, but now you are unwillling to do it yourself and are asking for help. Why not just give your trading capital to someone else to trade for you? 5yr
I don't think it is necessary to conclude that since you and I can't tell market direction that nobody can. I don't agree with your do-it-yourself attitude. If you find a service as good or better than you at market direction you are freed up to choose your stocks better.
http://www.timertrac.com/Public/Investors.asp http://www.timertrac.com/Public/SignalList.aspx After checking just a few of the timers registered on the list, I tend to believe this kind of 3rd party verifiable records, if reliable, may provide a very good source of some people's needs. Without a reliable 3rd party's verifiable records, anyone can claim anything (s)he would like to say.
================== 5yr; You have some good points, especially risk/money management; not sure someone paying for service, which could include books/IBD newspaper would be 'sad''. Many are helpful. Wouldnt want to give timertrac $ 25 per month however; enjoy research myself. Agree calling tops/bottoms in trends is somewhat pointless; since both are a process, SELDOM if ever a one time ''peak'' ..... BIG differrence between figuring market direction; and meaningful reversals. One of the most helpful things for identification of maket direction, regurdless of market [NYSE,NasdaQQQ, whatever ]; Market Makers Edge , book by Joshua Lukemen. He doesnt try to predict reversals tops or bottoms however . Also the highest probability is you will eventually learn why ; the'' trend is your friend''; not- the reversal is your freind!!!!! Reversals would be more important in counter trends[ smaller trends that have nore slippage;] than trends.