<i>"If you are afraid to run in the pack with the BIG DOGS then stay on the porch. There is no better or easier doodad to trade than the ES. Why? Because more eyeballs are watching the same setups you are watching and YES the worlds best traders will trade the most liquid doodad out there. ED is liquid but is not cool for plain ole direction trading."</i> Using that logic, why then do lescor, dustin, $RM and other big-money stock players trade the smaller, obscure stocks rather than XOM, MSFT, CSCO, INTC, etc? After all, those are the "big dogs" in stock world. Why would anyone stoop to smaller, less liquid stocks? Are those guys afraid to run with the pack? Answer that question, and I'll buy the next round of Mad Dog for both of us
I guess many prefer small stocks than big caps is that the probability of a small cap getting doubled is much more than a big cap like MSFT etc. I think futures game is different than stocks.
austinp Because those guys do what they do. I was mainly referring to the stock index. Myself i prefer to trade where many others are trading because when i look for a setup i want the "BIG DOGS" to be looking at the same thing. The main reason technical trading works so well is because of the "HERD" going with the perceived next level to target. When you know what is possibly coming next and you see a setupforming, wait for YOUR "GOLD" signal confirming the setup.....then you can be assured the odds of that signal are in your favor. You have the edge in that situation because intuition tells you many others are watching the same thing and are ready to pounce once price does what price will do. You want friends when you get filled. Do not ask me how i know all this .. it just developes in the skillset of trading from experience. Those guys that do what they do have developed their own skillsets. They surely could outtrade me if i played in their backyard. I found my own way and i bet the farm others that are winning traders found their own way also. This game is not learned from a book, etc. YOU develope your own way. Toys will not get you far. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hdA_VVZgS4&NR=1
Relative to the other e-mini products. Compared by volume. Remember, this product was created as a hedging instrument and Joe retail isn't hedging. He is speculating and providing liquidity for the hedgers.
The big dogs that I know are waiting for those classic technical setups, whether it be breakout, fibs, or floor trader pivots, to FADE the moves, not go with the crowd. I can't remember how many times I've seen the big dogs run the price to take out obvious stops and then reverse for a 2-3 point move. Happens every single day. As far as trade management goes, I think the probabilites of success work better with scaling out of ES, due it its back-n-fill characteristics. Alternatively, if you want to avoid scratch trades, just pop this thing for 2 or 3 trades for a point each and call it a day (easier said then done).
<i>"Myself i prefer to trade where many others are trading because when i look for a setup i want the "BIG DOGS" to be looking at the same thing. The main reason technical trading works so well is because of the "HERD" going with the perceived next level to target."</i> Good answer... I'm still buying (preferably beers) when we meet, but in reality what you describe is more akin to the other eminis than ES. Many big blocks in ES are purely computer generated. They don't recognize common patterns and other stuff created by human "herd" emotion. ES bots are programmed to capture brief arb inefficiencies... which we could say makes the ES most efficient of eminis. The smaller markets, stocks and indexes are more driven by human herd emotions. That is where we see greater opportunity. It's easier to be the big dog than it is to run with them. There are always bigger dogs in the ES than any of us here. * fwiw, I blew the dust off my mechanical system creating skills and created an entry method for any financial market that is about 90% mechanical. The trade management = exit portions of a trade I still handle with discretion, because that's just the way I prefer it. Here's what I found using identical criteria for all eminis: the ES gives roughly two times the trade signals in a day than other three (ER, NQ, YM) emini indexes. Needless to say, it has more false signals in there due to computer-bot antics, back & fill. On the other hand, those additional signals almost never miss a directional swing whereas sometimes the other three indexes blow away from a signal without giving clean entries. There is truth in the fact that ES gives ample chance for entry... too many chances at times, but seldom runs away without signals confirmed for any method, period. I personally prefer fewer trades with less noise myself. The whipsaws irk me, because I'm used to trading cleaner symbols coming out of consolidations like the ER. The ES is tradable... everything is. Just a different animal than the other indexes. It is the high-stakes poker table where biggest players congregate. Easier money is available at the smaller tables, but we're free to play wherever we see fit to ante
I understand what you are saying, but I don't look at it that way. The reason I prefer NQ is that it provides me with more reliable setups than ES for the manner in which I trade. Further, it allows for a tighter initial protective stop. For me, setup reliability and the ability to squeeze initial protective stops to a minimum trumps any commission considerations.
I suspect there is truth in what you say. As I had noted earlier, I prefer NQ and, coincidentally, its tick size is proportionate to its larger, pit traded counterpart. I see little point in giving arbs such an obvious advantage as they are afforded with ES and SP, at my expense. And so, I will remain in the NQ sandbox for now.
ES is so volatile that the trade can go 2 points against you and then a minute later 2 points in your favor. I do a few trades with ES with steady outcomes. 930-945 opening range breakout 10am reversal 3pm reversal 15 min range breakouts I love how volatile the ES is