Congratulations on entering the market. But what triggered the Buy, hmmm? A robust system is the product of robust entry signals AND robust exits. But I guess it's different from your world. Regardless, volatility/true-range-price-action will still confound algos, and different ranges of them over time will spell success or doom for the algos in production. That's a fact, Jack. ["Did you mention he should fire his risk manager?" Yes, dear.]
Don't worry my entries and exits. My stop is lifted to 2922.75 now, which is my exit if market turn back down. If market keep going up, my stop will be lifted accordingly.
I would recommend having a trade journal "outside" of this site but only use this site if you were already here prior to having a trade journal so that you're not talking about your trades in multiple different locations...way too much work. Not sure about the LinkedIn profile thingy considering I've been seeing many complaints lately all over the interent (e.g. twitter, facebook, elitetrader and other forums) by traders getting charged professional traders fees based upon info they stated in their LinkedIn profile many years ago when they were employed although today they are independent at the time when they open their "retail trading account". Simply, the info in their LinkedIn was used by the broker and/or exchange to classify the trader as a professional and then increased their fees to such. I would think a verified real money track record, credit check, criminal background check and in person meeting with those that someone is trying to get them to finance their trading capital would be all that's needed. Yet, I have met a few that went the route of first working as a quant for a financial institutional trading firm and then later quitting to trade their own account...they fast tracked their ability to raise funds from others. P.S. Odd question...would you give capital to someone asking for funds that's been convicted of causing a market crash with their algorithm trading system...if they come to you after been released from prison ? Obviously the person is qualified wrbtrader
%% Sure could be true with long only. BUT it sounds like you are saying a bull market trades like a bear market =100% incorrect And with an average bull + bear market lasting 3-4+ years; no way 1 month is enough. And not to mention much= sideways chop slop-trend. Wise words on position size,BBpp- but that does not change my points.Thanks,
Thanks guys. Actually, savings > 100,000 but I'm time constrained. An edge that can't be automated, and that only works during RTH is not very flexible. Basically, you are either full time pro trader or not. Have to be at your workstation pre-market, open, intra and close 5 days a week (plus homework). This is why you need more than starting capital (a lot more). This edge makes me married to RTH more than I ever thought I would be. I used to think I'd just 'get good enough' and then It would be a convenient part time or full time deal. It turns out that it is the complete opposite. No point in doing anything else, certainly my $50,000 a year job is a joke comparatively.
B.T.D.T. Got little more than a t-shirt. (But I LOVE the commute.) Your description takes me back... like it was yesterday. No advice to offer you on it. Maybe just a reflection that it seems like you're being realistic and are soberly considering the situation. Oh: don't forget health issues, if any. Kids? Pay off the mortgage, if you can. Rent the garage. (Move INTO the garage, rent the house.) This will all make for a lightened load and a faster-growing net liq.
"Assume probability of profit > 85% and 10% on account equity daily is relatively easy to do with standard exchange margin.[/QUOTE] Right, at 10% a day you would corner the worlds money supply. To be take seriously by a pro trader or firm you need to run it live with at least $25k for 2-3 years. The compounding calculator has your system making $2,697,470,166,789,066 your first year starting with your $100k you claim to have. You said it is not worth your time - well that says a lot. Backtesting/optimizing has the benefit of hindsight. Don't be that naive newbie that thinks they have decoded Matrix, your only fooling yourself. Anyone these days can hit pay dirt playing around with optimizing backtesting - its the fools gold that most find amusing, some take it way to seriously.
Actually, you can work part-time and trade full time or work full time at your 50k job and trade part-time (vacations, days of from work, sick days and leave of absence). This will allow you to at least get a verifiable real money trading without impacting your 50k job unless you have some sort'uv "on call" types of job in which you don't have regular schedule work hours as in you work whenver they need you. I know lots of part time traders with full time jobs with verifable trading record although they are not seeking capital. The reason why they're not seeking capital because they're slowly growing their account via trading on the days mentioned above. Yet, your description that it only works in RTH is odd...does that implied you've backtested it and it didn't do well in trading hours outside of RTH or does it imply it doesn't give trade signals in hours outside of RTH or does it implied you've only traded it in RTH on your days off from work ??? If this method of yours makes your 50k job a joke like you stated...you'll do whatever it takes to change your work hours / days of work so that you can trade the RTH or find another job (e.g. night job) that you'll be able to trade the RTH. I've met others that have done the latter...changed their work hours so that they can trade RTH hours. Last of all, backtest your trade method to determine the duration of the RTH hours that it performs the best (most profits). The results will allow you to determine which time of the day you can not have any conflicts with a job. For example, if your method performs the best in the morning trade session...change your work hours to the afternoon and evening. Yet, if there's a family involved...that's very problematic and your only options will be using your days off from work, sick leave and leave of absence for you to trade the RTH hours. Easy problem to fix because as stated...I've met a lot of people that did the above to fix similar like problem as yours. P.S. There's a guy in the trade journal section with a job that he didn't let conflict with his trading. He stated he had an edge too and his goal was to get a CME membership. It didn't work out too well for him due to changed market conditions that he wasn't able to adjust for. At least he didn't make the mistake of quitting his job. wrbtrader
These idiots that are trying to make automated systems via algorithm and backtest/optimization have one thing in common. The don't understand the limitations of statistics. Central Limit Theorem Law of Large Numbers Bayes Theorem Gauss-Markov Theorem The postulates of these theorems are not flexible. In other words, they think they are 'testing' algorithms and that they can just parameterize the market. I'm not saying statistics isn't useful but you can't test things if your core assumptions are unsound. Errors: heteroskedasticity, compounded distributions