Many of us remember when NoDoji discovered that (Losing trades yes, but losing days rarely). And was soundly ridiculed by some. Another oft heard assumption on ET is that Sim trading and live are always going to be different. If you come to the realization that you can learn to trade exactly the same live as you do in sim... (something Mark Douglas talks about)... Figure out those two assumptions and what would your trading be like?
When I have losing days, they are huge, always larger than what I can make because often times when I reach 6-7 points per contract, I am done for the day. I don't advise others to trade as I do as I average down on every signal, yes, have done all the back/forward testing and 4-5 years of real time trading, the numbers are there based on my style that are positive, but on losing days, it will bother me a bit, I will double check to see if I did anything wrong, am sure most traders would do the same. But fully aware this is a numbers game and usually in 3-4 weeks or less, made up the loss. You get to certain point where you just expect to be profitable each day and that's it, you know that losing days will happen, and not risking anywhere near betting the farm. But I think we all want to think we should never have losing days. Great deal of study and work, now more study though than work, but in early years, if I wasn't stubborn and persevere, I'd never made it, it is like in your blood, but my age now, I could never do that again. This was the hardest activity in my life to overcome, all the mental issues to deal into, learning to program, working nights somewhere else and yet always on my mind.
Simulator trading is very valuable. Only a fool would start trading without first confirming the "success" of his system as a simulator trader.
Handle, When you have one of your nasty losing days, hopefully not anytime soon, does it come because you hit max loss or is it due to market close? Thanks for clarifying.
This is true, but I don't think you can have a complete/trusted trading model, without initially losing some real money. It triggers a completely different thinking process. It's hard to explain, but it breeds diligence. It's like the failures (like sports) motivate you to get your technique right.
Although I become more conservative with averaging down from adding 8 levels to 4 levels, whatever the number of contracts I am trading on original entry, then same amount on 4 more levels, so if I am risking 9 ticks on original, then add-ons risk is 8, 7, 6, and 4 ticks, regardless it can be a very heavy loss on three in a row full losses. Whereas before having 9 levels and three losses, it would sometimes take two full months to recover. Systems I build now are based on low losing percentage rates and when I finally hit low enough, is when I started ave down, works so well on breakeven plus one tick trades so if half my trades this way and market went against position, I really clean up. I have ran the system hundreds of times of just taking one original enter and has like one losing day a year trading 75 minutes. There have been a few times where I hedge day trades, so my trading has evolved to much more risk management than making profits, but that is the reason of trading is making as much doe as you can, but you don't want to be having you rear ass exposed during hail storm. I have found between system not cycling right, and my emotional state of losing what a Starbuck barista makes working there 30 years, I simple can't mentally trade but tests show it only gets more ugly if I continued to trade rest of the day. I use to trade all day and make up to 150 trades in a day, but be like mega tired. More you trade and more you study, eventually you pick up small nuances that never appear in books. I have learned to not show your hand as far as limits on Dome, don't trade more than a small enough percentage size so it unable to get out without causing your own slippage. ie. if someone put in 1,000 market order during lunch, could cover 6 levels of price in ES and 30 levels in Coffee than watch it all retrace. It been a few months since I traded all day, did like 92 trades last time and I just don't have concentration, energy, focus to do that, not do I have to, have automation doing that. It wouldn't take me as long to recover if I pressed and traded all day for a week or two, but they be carrying me out on a gurney each day.
A consistent trader is a successful trader who wins regularly either big or low profits . More wins some is not a success . Actually we have to learn how to make profits in any situation of market . This thing will make me a good trader and confident that I can work well any time.
Your strategy is random trading. In reality you trade worse than random because some random traders make money - see this for example.