lol. some depression. there was a segment on our local news tonight about a big boat and camper show in town this week. they interviewed one of the salesman and he said his sales this week are great and he thinks they will set a record for his business. keep in mind that is is 10 degrees here right now and you can only use a boat or camper here about 5 months a year. people are still spending on things they dont need. http://www.keloland.com/NewsDetail9.cfm?Id=22,23045
OK TGgregg, whose opinion and posts I always respect, several MM later I will submit to that 1: The population in the 1930s was aprox 75mil less; pre baby boom so apples to apples Umplym. is likely 12-13% Nationalized; 2: a very good friend of mine whose been flipping real-estate in the NYC area for the past 5-6 years and has made a fortune; see's business drying up; as people are holding on to their only asset. So I will submit to you that the "easy" $$ have been made via both stocks and real estate.. Where do we go from here? Best. , David P.S.: 4 Makers Marks later; I am in a damn decent mood; plus my MTG REFI is closing next week; saving me wad's of dough! And BTW; the homeless levels were reported in the NY Post as THE HIGHEST levels since the 1930s; NYC..sorry for any misconception! David Have a great night! David
why were they priced at 32-34k in the first place? they pumped up the prices when times were booming because people didnt care about price. i bought a new chev 4/4 in 95 for 18k i bought another one in 2000 for 32k for the exact same truck. i priced a new one last week because they sent me a 2500 rebate offer in the mail. they want 34k for it. thats almost a double in 8 years. something had to give. you cant have prices go up at that rate forever.
But almost every economist you read or hear still maintains that there won't be a double dip recession. Up until a couple weeks ago, it was generally considered hearsay by the public press to bet on the October lows being violated. So all that optimism makes you wonder what happens when they are all proven wrong? Mass towel throwing?
Soon enuff. The hope in the markets shows no signs of abating anytime soon. When is the last time youv'e seen a "bid-wanted" situation in the market? I have to go all the way back to Mar-Apr 2001, since I have seen this. Hell, even during the post 9/11 open, I felt comfy going long, in fact made 27K that week, only GOING long, and never short. It's the mass hope in the markets that prevent the washout most are looking for. Mutual Fund cash positions are only 4.3% , and have not budged since 3/00. They have been invested the entire way down. Compare that to 1991 levels of 12% and 1981 levels of close to 17%. Where is the catalyst to drive stocks higher? I dunno? Take out the geo-poiltical nonsense from the markets, and set stock prices by economics alone, and there is huge downside risk. Just remember, 6 years ago, 2 Japanese guys were having this same conversation over cocktails, at Nikkei 18K, well 20 yr lows have been printed since then! And no one is even comtemplating a 4th down year; the complacency is frightening. Best, David
TheCaracal: Oops, I misunderstood your post. You were speaking of raw numbers, while I was thinking in terms of precentages. To compare the raw numbers instead of percentages is to mislead. Here's an example. Count up all the people living in New York who have an income of $50k or mor, then compare to the number in the 1930s with that income level (absolute now, no indexing to inflation or GDP or any of that). I suspect one would see an increase of several hundred-thousand (if not millions) fold, certainly it would be amazingly higher. Think of the way cool headline the press could write with that. Anyway, the economy is in *far* better shape that in the Great Depression.
You know, you could do a lot worse than reading the work of Todd Harrison and Bill Flekenstien. They've been swimming against the stream all along and have been dead right. And the future that they are forcasting for stock prices is very bleak compared to current levels.
the sooner the civilized world is no longer held hostage by one arrogant dictator, the sooner the price of oil will decline to reflect that actual abundance in supply and diminished demand that are at play in the marketplace. the sooner this happens, the sooner ordinary people the world over can get back to the business of life.