Discussion in 'Trading' started by DonCorleone, May 13, 2005.
was there an upgrade i missed? or is it just a shift in funds into this sector? hmmm...
it was DELL dude
All the above plus last months TXN and Intel. I've been long the former and it has performed decently. There maybe life in the semi stocks over the next couple of months. Although, the summer is normally slow for tech stocks, so it may wait until fall.
I don't think we're going to see much further upside in techs for now, I agree with you about them being slow during the summer, techs are definately seasonal IMO...
For example, NVDA is trading around $25 right now, it's a pretty good bet that they will be trading around $10 in early August. NVDA stock has managed to take some pretty large nosedives in the first couple of weeks of August over the past few years if you go back over the numbers.
Mid-August tends to be a nice time to look at starting up a long position in techs if one is looking at trying to pick a bottom.
Could see some more buying and;
most of monthly charts = sells,
most of weekly charts = sell,
most of the daily charts = sell,
price from Jan 1 = down.
Looks like near serious resistance also.
So, Murray the '+' in your post means that these are contrarian indicators?
Just kidding. The decent earnings reports from the last month have made me somewhat bullish in this sector. Its not that tech doesn't rally during this time frame. It can and I have included a chart of the rally that this most reminds of. The chart is of 1997 when the market was down for the year until earnings came out and we went on a ride with barely a downtick. Of course, we had a mini crash that fall, but that's almost six months away. And, we have a confluence of events right here above and beyond what Murray points out. In a way, these help tech as they don't face any of these issues. Their balance sheets are generally great without the legacy costs of older industrial sectors. They aren't subject to commodity price fluctuations, although they still have currency exposure. Another negative is that capacity utilization is still low in this sector. My thoery is that people will move into tech as a sort safe haven right here.
/proceed to flame
Here's the file that didn't attach.
That's an interesting view on things, but I have some doubts about this happening. The overall market seems pretty bearish right now (the "good news is bad news" version of sentiment).
I think that the next week or two of trading will be critical though, a quick look at the 1yr QQQQ shows that Friday ended at the upper end of the current downwards channel, I suspect things will move downwards next week.
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