In a previous post I "forecast" that a "big" bank was about to fail. I based that "forecast" on the fact that a bank or banks had dramatically increased their use of the secondary window at the Federal Reserve. I note that activity did NOT decrease after the demise of Colonial or Guaranty... http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/current/h3.htm This is NOT a good sign. Yes, I am aware of the FDIC's latest report of 400 plus banks on the ropes, but this is something more...even at the "height" of the recession/depression aka "late last year" there was NOT this sort of activity at the secondary window. If the "credit crisis" is over, then why is this happening now? Hmmm, could it be that prime, subprime, option-ARM and commercial/industrial have actually gotten worse - rhetorical Green shoots????? If this is green shoots...it is "poison ivy" popping out of the ground! -gastropod
And also got to love that AIG needs its own column $40 Billion? Do they have to constantly shovel billions and billions of dollars at them to keep them in 40 Bill range or is that money just on AIG's books? I'll admit that total under the secondary does look just a little ominous. 600 mil is pretty much nothing compared to some of the other totals on there but something has got to be up when the previous high was 117 and last month was 66 then Bam almost 700 million so far this month