An average game as I had a fast start but failed to back it up with size and could not get a true break out game. 4300 shares each way on 3 of 4 shooting, +754 before commissions, +593 after, 1 bullet. Last night I started doing nightly chart sessions again, and this morning I had a long and short list via daily chart set-ups. As the market sold off hard I could immediately see a lot of my ideas weren't working right off the bat, and they were quickly eliminated. The ones I had left would have worked well. My concentration is getting better, confidence is improving too, I am a month away from finishing my first year and I rarely start positions with 1000 shares, I need to pick up my size a little. My exits were good today, although I should have took a few more shots. Pre-Market: Some more energy downgrade although I just can't see them going lower after three huge sell-off's in a row. Missed the inevitable rally but it is ok, energies weren't on my plan today. Housing numbers declined and I expected further damage on home builders wish I put up a bullet on FLR. A batch of bank downgrades and we are off to the opening bell. 9:30: I had financials on my long list and it was obvious they won't work given the news. I expected a rally but market was down big . . . still there had to be a squeeze and I wish I took APH long which was a flawless shooting star on the daily. DRG sold off hard and I saw a big offer on AGN, bullet and got spreaded for half a point, fortunately it went down another 40 cents and I managed to get out at the intraday bottom. It was actually on my long list but the offer looked too good, still, it was a lucky trade, it could have easily spreaded me for half a point. 9:50: Took CPN and MGA long, got CPN on UTY strength, got 70 cents, MGA I took 30 cents. Tried MGA later off the intraday support (on the tape there seemed to be a big buyer there) and lost patience, got out, could have made half a point. I was up $750, given today being my birthday I didn't really want to force anything . . . 11:00: LEH sold off very hard and went to yesterday's low at 48.25, I took some at 48.3, he blew my stop, filled my at the figure then ripped it a point! Very annoying, I have to call it a day while I still could . . . A few more games like this, and I should hit some four digit games, finally back in the black again. Although my performance, which is usually neck to neck against firm average, is way off this week, but if I can break out of this cold spell in time, I can add some more size, then sky is the limit . . . I can feel the edge again, the edge I lost since I added those bollinger bands on my screen . . . I would like to attribute my slump to the addition of an indicator that doesn't fit my style, hopefully from now on, everything will just flow . . . The same fateful day in 1979, the Hitman was created, to set the wrong things right, to create wealth for his loved ones, to make their life the best it can possibly be. 22 years later, I haven't accomplished anything yet, but I am in the right position, sky is the limit, the only thing holding a trader back is himself . . .
To All: This market is NOT tough, my firm is having a HUGE week, the % of people positive before commissions is a stunning 83% last 4 days, while when you factor in commissions it will definitely be lower, but the numbers don't lie, 2 of 4 day's this week should have been awesome games but I made exactly $100 from those two games. The volatility and volume are back, not 99-00 good, but very very tradable, stop making excuses, go short. I have had too many good looks that I either didn't take, or took but got out too fast. There is a lack of confidence in my heart right now, a certain level of fear that's preventing me from taking every good trade I see, the only cure is a winning streak. I will certain increase my holding period and do daily charts every night, I need to understand the daily trends to make better use of intraday trends, just a basic idea can be incredibly helpful. For those of you who are wondering, the guy who made 110K yesterday generated almost 20K in commissions to make his 110K after . . . The secret is a lot of size, a lot of bullets. The guy who made 60K yesterday traded 50 different stocks, he had 25 bullets up before the market even opened (that was an instant 2K deficit to open the game) and he is a basket trader. SIZE, to make SIZE, you have to trade SIZE, and be able to handle SIZE and DOZENS of positions . . . Think about it, you need ten 10K share positions 1 point each to get 100K, this particular trader does this about once every month or two during non-summer months, and he hits 20-30K once every week . . . It is not money management, it is SIZE management, that's tough, incredibly tough . . .
Hitman, Could you elaborate a little on why your style and Bollinger bands are incompatible. I hope that getting rid of the bands is a turning point to major success for you. Good Luck.
In my opinion, bollinger bands work very very well in futures sensitive stocks, very liquid ones, but I trade a large variety of stocks and a lot of them are small/mid caps, and they are driven by pure supply/demand, tape action, and tend to totally ignore it.
Hitman, I wish I took APH long which was a flawless shooting star on the daily Took a look at the APH daily and, unfortunately, it wasn't flawless and it wasn't a shooting star. They can only come after an uptrend or the top of a congestion zone (as they are a bearish reversal pattern), and after APH's recent downtrend the candle of 9/19 is closest to what's called an inverted hammer. And it isn't a great one at that because it didn't gap down from the previous day, but it was close. Anyway, even if it had been a flawless inverted hammer the candle experts (Steve Nison, Greg Morris) strongly urge confirmation for that particular pattern. In Nison's Japanese Candlestock Charting Techniques he says, "It is important to wait for bullish verification on the session following the inverted hammer."
I meant hammer, lol, shooting star is the other way around. I had a few hammers today (in fact if you go to www.stockcharts.com there were 90 hammers versus 6 shooting stars), I was really surprised market sold off as hard as it did. Most of the hammers were doomed to fail this morning but APH had a BID at one point, I just happened to look the other way when it happened . . . Let me know if you see any good daily set-up's, looking to learn more . . .
Good point Magna, but I believe the daily candle on 9-19 is a hammer, not an iverted hammer. This candle may prove important at least short term as it occurred in a previous low congestion band between 30 & 35. In addition, it lands close to the 200 week ma which proved to be support in the past. However, as Magna mentioned, it is advised to wait for confirmation of this as a possible reversal. There is one more item to look at which indicates to me that this hammer may not hold as support. Look at the volume, this hammer was not formed on high volume, so it's likely to be weak especially condsidering that the candle on 9-20 has a long upper shadow on heavier volume. This indicates that additional price advances were rejected and pushed back on higher volume. On a related note, it is important not to change time frames when analyzing a trade. It's difficult to look at daily charts and attempt to trade them the following day on an intraday basis. Even if the stock is in an uptrend on the daily, it could have a bad day and downtrend all day crushing you along the way. Only if the intraday trend (i.e.- 15 min) confirms the daily is it a good intraday trade. If you identify a tradeable pattern on a daily chart then it should be traded on a daily time frame which means swing trading the position.
Hitman, From a quick scan of my charts I noticed the following patterns (I included Nas tho I know you only trade listed): GERN - bullish Morning Star, doesn't quite close far enough into the 9/18 body CBST - nicely bullish Engulfing candle MEDX - bullish engulfing KG - almost a nice Morning Star, very close OPWV - bullish Morning Doji Star APOL - bearish Evening Star (although weak vol) DSL - bearish Evening Star EDS - very bearish Evening Star This list is not complete or even close to it, just some examples of patterns. Volume will play a big part in determining follow-thru (along with the normal overall market influence). And these things are by no means slam-dunks, just probability alerts.
sallyboy, Yer right, it was a standard hammer, not an inverted hammer (duh). They are both bullish after a downtrend, both have about the same probability of indicating a reversal of trend, and both need follow-thru confirmation.