(Until the stock market once again returns to a sound mode for investors who can buy, hold, and feel secure in doing so) Well, the people who bought, held, and felt secure just got screwed out of their retirements. So I wouldnt expect the market to return to a place where people are happy to do that for years to come. People who got burned in the early 30's never forgot it.
No buying, just much of the same. Bottom line: The markets stay in the crapper until corporate earnings return.
On the one hand, I agree that recent retail investors will probably avoid buy-n-hold like the plague for the next 5, 10, maybe forever years. By the time they feel comfortable returning to the market, these baby-boomers will be so old that they will be looking for fixed-income investments. This will push the required risk premium for equities higher (and the P/E ratio for stocks below the historical average). The only interesting twist would be if these retail investors get the "active management" bug and buy into hedge funds and other assorted trading-intensive nonsense. On the other hand, one difference between now and the 30's is the greater level of institutional investors who NEED, NEED, NEED a return to high returns. A bunch of corporations are sitting on underfunded pension plans right now (doubly underfunded due to both the drop in the markets and the drop in the T-bill rate whose inverse defines the required funding level). These institutional investors will be the first to return to the market because they desperately want the high returns that only equities seem to provide. On the third hand, maybe some hot new technology (quantum computing, proteomics, or nanotech, anyone???) will create the next new investment bubble. After a brief bout of wariness, everyone will jump onto the next bandwagon of irrational exuberance. It's impossible to know what will happen, but its always fun to try and predict this stuff.
NYSE Sets 11 a.m. Market Opening For September 11 NEW YORK, Aug. 16 â The New York Stock Exchange today announced that it will delay its opening until 11 a.m. on Wednesday, Sept. 11, 2002. The decision to delay the market opening was made in respect for the memorial services planned that day in New York City and throughout the nation. "On 9/11, New Yorkers and all Americans will honor the victims of 9/11, their families and loved ones, and the heroes of the rescue and recovery efforts. It's fitting and appropriate that the New York Stock Exchange remains silent during the memorial services," said NYSE chairman and CEO Dick Grasso. tntneo
a small PS : the market's auction system is driven by supply and demand. arguably supply and demand is influenced by emotion. however, saying that the market may feel 'patriotic' or not, projecting emotion on it, is ill conceived. even trying to guess the emotion of the majority of participants is a waste of time, and generally will hit your wallet. this is a business. keep patriotism out or, just like the ones buying the depressed prices early after 9.11, kiss your money goodbye. said otherwise : think about the other side of your trade. when you are buying patriotic, someone is selling. who is right ? none, or both. the question is irrelevant. that's the point. the trade is not emotional. "two sides agree on price and disagree on value. ", don't address the market as a 'thinking being'. it is supply and demand. if you are a trader, don't try to second guess S & D, just look at their evolution. when the money is in your pocket, eventually, theorize on who did what and why. and laughing to the bank, realize it's irrelevant. tntneo PS : I am not sure I will trade on 9.11. but not because of the market, but because, I think it's OK to reflect on what happened last year. many colleagues died, the world change for real, and we all remember where we were when it happened.
NYSE Opening Bell on 9/11 to Follow Memorial Service NEW YORK, Sept. 5 â On Sept. 11, the New York Stock Exchange will open for trading 30 minutes after the conclusion of the memorial service being held at the World Trade Center site, but not before 11 a.m. Should the event last longer than its anticipated 10:29 a.m. conclusion, the NYSE will delay its opening beyond 11 a.m. The Exchange will announce the exact timing of the opening bell following conclusion of the memorial service.
Any word from Nasdaq if there will be a premarket session 90 minutes before the open? I would imagine not since they don;t know when the NYSE will open.