September 11th delayed opening

Discussion in 'Trading' started by OPTIONAL777, Sep 8, 2002.

  1. How do you think the September 11th delayed opening will play out?

    Will we have a lot of "patriotic buying?"
  2. I think that, absent any major happenings, we could see an avalanche of patriotic buying. I'll be watching for it, if I trade.

    I may just take the day off. No, I suppose not. If the market is open, I need to be trading. Maybe I'll donate my profits to a WTC charity. I just don't want to live 911 for me only.

    Don't bother flaming me for such an idiotic idea. I'll just ignore.
  3. If I trade it will be from the short side only. I dont think anything is going to happen but I dont want to be long if it does.
  4. Quiet1


    well hmmm. what's the state of the "market"? i think in aggregate the shorter-term trader population (those who, at the margin, swing the market back and forth day-in-day out) is net short.

    in aggregate those who were long last week have now liquidated. there's not many short term longs left to puke and longer term longs aren't going to puke around here.

    the "market" therefore, IMHO, contains the requirements for a short-term short-covering rally this week (over the balance of the week we will be higher on friday than we closed on friday).

    but who cares...this week isn't really about that, is it...

  5. I am inclined to spend the week doing research, and sit most of the week out as far as actual trading.

    Since TA is basicly gaming the psychology of what is happening with the buyers and sellers of stocks, I want to avoid situations where this psychology is being overridden by issues unrelated to the stock I would be trading, easpeacially when those issues are so unpredicable.

    One dark thought, consider the goal of the perpetrators - to create the maximum damage to the collective American psyche.

    IMO, the best way to do that, would be to let USA go through it's 911 rememberance rituals, then once USA breathes a sigh of relief and eager to get back to "normal", hit again hard. (say 48 hrs to one week afterword).

    I know that's a really ugly thought, but ugly is what this is all about - these "people" are known for playing the dirtiest trick when it is least expected, to do the cruelest damage. They really hate us, and the lower the blow, the more attractive to them.
  6. swtrader,

    If we see another terrorist action on the scale of last September 11'th, that bond manager just might see his prediction come true about the DOW.

  7. tntneo

    tntneo Moderator

    certainly don't care.
    you should all read the threads after 9.11 and before the market reopened last year.
    people were asking the same questions. maybe with more of a patriotic feel to 'help' the market (in fact help themselves).

    the market has no emotion. don't project your emotions on it. it will crush you.

    just trade what you see, not what you think.
    also it's OK not to trade imho.

    but please don't bring patriotism in trading. it did not help then and it will be the same next week.


  8. I agree ...
  9. It is an interesting concept, that the market has no emotion.

    Does a herd of bulls running have emotion?

    Does an angry mob run on emotion?

    Given that the market is a collective beast, the sum total of all the human emotions (some will argue that computerized trading is emotionless...however those who programmed the computers did not design and write those programs with out emotions. In fact, it was their understanding of the nature of the market's emotional swings, called momentum, that make those programs effective), understanding the emotions of mass psychology, which is the market, is very important for longer term traders and investors.

    The market is very emotional these days, and as almost anyone can attest it is certainly not rational.

    Trade what you see, not what you think? I believe the most insidious factor influencing the market is trading what you see without thinking.

    It the dominance of the momentum trading, having become more of an influence on the investors and traders that weakens our stock markets, weakens the financial structure of our system and economy. We are seeing it right now in the housing bubble and refinancing madness.

    While momentum trading may work, and may work well, at its very nature is pure emotion without logic, reason, or thinking. It is pure herd mentality at its worst.

    This kind of thinking, when it runs roughshod over investing, valuation, and reflection on whether it is wise to invest.....

    will in my opinion eventually lead to a devastating collapse of the markets, when the selling of momentum only trading and investing becomes stronger than the reasoning process.

    Just my opinion, but what we see in the markets is certainly not what investors are seeking.

    I suppose this is my biggest gripe about the increasing amount of trading for the sake of trading.

    It produces nothing except volatility for the sake of trading. It is casino action, not reflective of valuation or economic development.

    I would have thought that the stock market collapse in the Nasdaq would have reduced this short term, get rich quick mentality, but in fact it has not diminished....statistics indicate futures trading is actually increasing. We see increasing of trading by the hedge funds and institutional traders, who have given up the idea of buy and hold for the lure of scalping and a quick 10 to 15% here and there.

    Anyone who has studied the Nikkei market, will see that is what we are headed for.

    Until the stock market once again returns to a sound mode for investors who can buy, hold, and feel secure in doing so.....the market is only a huge momentum move away from devastation.

  10. As the electronic age progresses and all our former nintendo pilots enter the markets, we will see a new era in market dynamics. Long gone will be the days when people merely bought a stock, held it for 20 years and then sold it at a profit or, in the case of current times, at a loss.

    Instead, the market is more sophisticated than that -- now that people are learning that you can make money either way, and a big down day doesn't necessarily mean a loss, it will turn into a tug of war between longs and shorts.

    However, every time a buyer purchases something, they experience buyer's remorse. This is a proven psychological phenomena that applies to all things -- whether you buy a new car or a new stock or buy to daytrade the S&P. Likewise, sellers will experience "shorts remorse." That's why you get retracements, overshoots, undershoots and what not.

    But, just like in a big tug of war match, each side my pull the other closer and further from the lake, but the net effect over a given time period is that one of the teams will end up in the lake.

    As more and more savvy electronic investors learn how markets work, this tug-of-war match will get stronger and stronger. Eventually, when too many bears or bulls start to get rope burns in their hands, the pressure from one side is released and the market snaps in a certain direction like a high-tension steel cable getting snapped.

    #10     Sep 8, 2002