1. AAII SENTIMENT SURVEY RESULTS: "Results as of June 15, 2006: Bullish: 26.41% Neutral: 18.61% Bearish: 54.98% This week's survey results saw bullish sentiment rise slightly to 26.41%, below its long-term average of 39.1%. Neutral sentiment fell to 18.61%, below the long-term average of 32.9%. And bearish sentiment rose to 54.98%, above the long-term average of 28.1%."
This guy says the crowd is "almost always wrong": Bill Lussenheide-President Lussenheide Capital Management Inc http://www.investmentwarrior.com: "LCM does not rely on emotional or subjective reasoning for trading decisions. Says Bill Lussenheide, 'The crowd is almost always wrong at major turning points, and this is where the most profit can be made or lost. By using mathematical models, one ensures that they are never too optimistic or pessimistic at the wrong time. Emotions are the investors worst enemy!'"
Sentimentrader.com says that 22.4% of the open puts purchased have been from retail folks, as indicated from the fact they were 10 contracts or less, and that when above 20%, may indicate [increased probability] of higher prices to come based on some historical comparisons.
What has happened previously when the bearish sentiment rose above 50%? Is it based on a reasonably large sample size? Does the sample include hedge fund managers who live in Stamford or Greenwich?
This is the type of link they provide for surveys: To participate in the AAII Sentiment Survey, or to view historical survey results, click on the link below: http://www.aaii.com/membersurveys/Sentiment/SentimentSurvey.cfm I don't know the answers to your questions, but would like to know.
Contradiction though, because Bill Lussenheide however just recently reported a bearish opinion on Timertrac. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=71281