There was no compelling reason for the selloff today. Do should retest 9000 soon enough. The recovery will still be 'v' shaped. The market should be up after the Apple report. Hard to have a long term bear market when there is no reason for one.
Do your own "smell test." On intraday rallies are you thinking "this stuff could be turning good" or are you thinking "this is just a small retracement in a downtrend hence sellers will probably emerge". Most of us our conditioned by the sharp rallies to think that any strength can turn into a 80pt ES ramp. That's why gaming sentiment is so important. The best gauge of sentiment? Ourselves.
True. But index wise it's much like summer of 2002. I learned a valuable lesson that year. I was bearish but I kept buying. I never thought the trade could be so severely one sided. Errant thinking. The only buys I've made this year have been on measured moves into fresh lows where I have wiggle room. Buying counter trend strength in a bear market is a fer sure death. Unfortunately I make the mistake of selling Treasury weakness against macro strength every other day......
excellent tip! my sentiment right now: "no way we could breach oct-10 lows in the next several weeks". so to turn it around means we gonna slice right through that level - scary thought.
Nah, going long when indices are down 30+% is the easy thing to do. Cant go much farther can it attitude? Getting short on a consolidation after that 30% move is the hard trade to make. Most people have this need to pick tops and bottoms. To them it feels good....until it doesnt work.
Rising wedge from october 10th still holds http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/qu...?symb=djia&sid=1643&o_symb=djia&freq=1&time=4 the contracting volume in the past week is a promising sign. Also the dow still 900 points above oct. 10th lows, so even if the wedge fails there is huge support.