Sentiment Is Too Bullish

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Pa(b)st Prime, Oct 21, 2008.

  1. your either in cash or your buying. shorting is silly down here.
     
    #41     Oct 21, 2008
  2. This is a buying opportunity of a lifetime, time to go long 7x equity, in the long run leveraged long only investors ends up winning.
     
    #42     Oct 21, 2008
  3. I must have missed the post where someone neglected to take responsibility and then blamed their performance on hedge funds. However if you do not believe that forced selling as a result of redemptions and margin calls by prime brokers have not been a major catalyst of the recent violent selloff then your knowledge of market mechanics is severely lacking.
     
    #43     Oct 21, 2008
  4. What is "bullish sentiment on the sidelines?" This makes no sense. If you are refering to the reord high levels of cash uninvested, that is only bullish in a contrarian way. By definition, if the cash is on the sidelines, clearly it is not bullish for those whose cash it is, correct?
     
    #44     Oct 21, 2008
  5. Daal

    Daal

    what I said is just a mathematical fact. 'Net capital redemptions totaled $31 billion in the quarter, also a record.' - HFR
    This is less than 50% of one day worth of NYSE trading
    Now you can go ahead and blame mutual fund redemptions which is a much bigger industry but to think its all forced selling and margin calls its wishful thinking AT BEST.
    The amount of legitimate selling probably trumps forced selling by a ridiculous amount
     
    #45     Oct 21, 2008
  6. dhpar

    dhpar

    pabst - you must be smoking pot or what.
    sentiment is too bullish? where the hell do you get it? is it maybe from vix being higher then ever except for the last few days? or that we sell off 400 points instead of 1000?

    even i am bearish and that is usually a good indicator...:D
     
    #46     Oct 21, 2008
  7. mokwit

    mokwit

    What I am talking about is people (other than shorts covering and the initiators) buying into these suckers rallies every time there is some primarily cosmetic positive development or announcement. At the bottom of a bear market the recovery is staring you in the face but nobody believes it.
     
    #47     Oct 21, 2008
  8. Thank you for proving my point that you are not grasping the fact that this is not a mathematical event but a psychological event. Just as copycat hedge funds mimicked each other's long holdings and attempted to coat-tail performance in this manner, ther reverse was also true in that funds were shorting what others were selling. The bids dried up.

    Let me say it another way. I am selling the only Corvette in town and you want to buy it. My boss is a friend of yours and you learn that I will soon lose my job. Will you (a) offer me market price today or (b) wait for my situation to turn desperate so that you can capitalize and lowball me?
     
    #48     Oct 21, 2008
  9. Daal

    Daal

    think about what your saying. who said anything about CHK or other hedge fund stock darlings. we are talking about stock market averages. the reason SP500 got decimated has nothing to do with hedge fund redemptions
     
    #49     Oct 21, 2008
  10. WTF are you talking about? When did I mention CHK?

    You obviously didn't get my point or my analogy.
     
    #50     Oct 21, 2008